Settling a Fantasy Premier League debate: Danny Ings vs Raul Jimenez

Every season when the deadline is near and I have most of my team sorted there is always that one 50/50 decision that has me pulling my hair out right up until the final second. No doubt you are the same, so in this article I am going to cover two players I have seen fantasy football managers talk about who cost the exact same, finished on around the same points (four point difference) and had almost identical stats last season.

They are both very good options and I think at least one of these guys should be in your team at least. The two players in questions are Danny Ings and Raul Jimenez.

Danny Ings (£8.5m) - Southampton
Ownership (26%)

We will start off with Danny Ings since he finished on more points. He had a phenomenal season and was unlucky not to get the golden boot. He was only one goal behind Jamie Vardy, finishing the season on 22 goals and 2 assists which saw him pick up a career best 198 points. The Saints star finished the campaign as the third highest scoring forward behind Vardy (210 points) and Aubameyang (205 points).

He proved an absolute bargain as he started last season at only £6.0m. You can’t help but feel elated for him as his career has been ravaged with injury, but last term he managed to stay fit for the whole season and showed us exactly what he is capable of.

After only managing 2,252 minutes in his last four seasons combined before 2019-20, he played 2800 minutes last season alone and remarkably played in all 38 league games, starting in 32 of them. His conversion rate was an exceptional 33% which shows his prolificacy. He really is a clinical finisher and doesn’t need to be asked twice to score.

Ings only averaged only 1.7 shots per game last season, 128 minutes per goal and missed only 8 Big Chances (BC) again backing up his composure in the box. Southampton face just two of last season’s top eight teams in the opening eight games so he is an extremely good option to start with and a lot of fantasy managers will have him from the off, currently owned by 26% of fantasy managers. If he stays injury free again I don’t see any reason why he won’t have another good season.

Graphic from our OPTA Stats Tool:

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Raul Jimenez (£8.5m) – Wolves
Ownership (20%)

Since the Mexican’s arrival in the Premier League with Wolves two seasons ago Raul Jimenez has been one of the most consistent forwards in the division. After having a strong debut season bagging 13 goals and 10 assists, he bettered that last term with 17 goals and 7 assists. He finished on 194 points as the fourth highest scoring forward.

Jimenez was top from all the forwards last season in shots (118), and Shots in the Box (93), and he was also top for Big Chances Created (13). If that’s not enough he also played the most minutes (3,241) out of all the forwards and was only benched in one league game all season starting 37 out of 38.

An all-round striker, with penalties at his disposal too, there is nothing more a fantasy football manager can ask for. His first two games aren’t the best on paper Sheffield United (a) and Manchester City (H) but he has shown that he can score against anybody as he notched versus Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Spurs last season.

Jimenez’s conversion rate last season was a lot lower than Ings’s at 19% but he does get a lot more chances which offsets this. Also, he missed 9 Big Chances, one more than the Saints man.

Graphic from our OPTA Stats Tool:

So we have got to this point and are still no closer to concluding who the better pick is, so let’s use Fantasy Football Hub’s Comparison Tool to help aid our decision:

This gives us a more holistic and clearer view of both strikers and what they are about. As we can see Jimenez’s spidergram is looking far superior to Ings’s and if we look at the individual metrics the Mexican has his number in almost every single one apart from overall points and goals. This backs up what was stated earlier regarding Ings being more clinical and Jimenez being a volume striker, and getting more chances and opportunities for assists.

Conclusion

In the end it all comes down to predicting points based on sound reasoning. There really isn’t anything separating them stats and output wise, however when we look at who has been more consistent over a longer period, who gets more minutes and more chances the answer is Raul Jimenez. He also has penalties and a superior assist threat in his locker too which further solidifies the argument. The fact is he has more avenues to points, which was one of the top tips covered in our ‘’10 Fantasy Premier League Tips to Dominate Your Mini League’’ article.  

Yes Ings has a better set of opening fixtures, but as we know the Mexican is known to score in the big games and is it really worth planning a transfer to swap later down the line? It would be a sideways move in my opinion and it’s almost never a good idea to pre-plan transfers before Gameweek 1. Even our Points Prediction Tool has Jimenez slightly ahead of Ings in expected points for the first eight Gameweeks. They come in as the fifth and sixth top scorers for forwards respectively.

Points Prediction Tool Gameweek 1-8:

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