Match Focus: Analysing the Midfield Battle Central to World Cup Opener
It's now a matter of days away. The World Cup returns this Thursday with an exciting opening game to look forward to as host nation and tournament favourites Brazil face Croatia. It's arguably the most star-studded curtain raiser for the competition in recent memory.
Fans of the Seleção always expect, but with the tournament being held on home soil for Luiz Felipe Scolari's side, that expectancy couldn't be much higher. Brazil boast Neymar after all, who, in the eye's of his adoring public, can do no wrong. The stage is set for the 22-year old to steal the show and return the World Cup crown to its most illustrious owner.
A tough opening encounter is probably what is needed to really assess Brazil's credentials after a prolonged spell without competitive international action. Croatia have entered such tournaments in greater form in the past, having to come through a play-off to qualify, but they won't want to follow the script and have the players to hurt the hosts. The absence of top scorer Mario Mandzukic through suspension will, however, undoubtedly be a blow.
Nevertheless, it's in the heart of Niko Kovač's midfield where Croatia's real jewels can be found, and they will fancy their chances head-to-head against the opposing trio on Thursday.
Scolari's favoured triumvirate seems to be Gustavo as the holding midfielder, Paulinho in the box-to-box role and Oscar given the licence to roam. The latter is a particularly key player at international level, and will be pivotal once more despite a somewhat modest campaign with Chelsea. The same could perhaps be said of Paulinho, who started relatively brightly in England's top tier but faded with Spurs. Nevertheless he's favoured by Scolari and seems likely to keep both Fernandinho and Ramires out of the XI, which may baffle a number of Premier League fans.
Croatia, meanwhile, possess two of La Liga's strongest midfield playmakers in Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, as well as the prodigious talent of Inter's Mateo Kovacic. Though as a unit Brazil will be strong favourites on paper, there certainly isn't much to choose between the two midfields.
The issue for Kovač is that none of his talented trio are at their best when breaking up play. All are stronger when in possession, but Modric will likely be tasked with the deepest role, controlling the tempo from in front of Croatia's back four.
When compared with Brazil's holding midfielder Gustavo, it's clear that the Wolfsburg man is the stronger defensively. Gustavo averaged significantly more tackles (3.4 to 2.1) and interceptions (2.4 to 1.4) in the league than Modric last season, but the latter is undoubtedly stronger in possession, averaging over 10 more passes per game with a superior accuracy (89.7% to 86.6%). Croatia's biggest hope may well be in holding a fair share of the ball despite their underdog status, and Modric will be central to this.
The players on either side that will most likely work the most going both ways are Rakitic and Paulinho. The former had an exceptional campaign with Sevilla - one that could yet have earned him a move to Barcelona - while, as mentioned, Paulinho's debut season in England was somewhat stop-start. Indeed, as far as the league statistics from last season are concerned, there is no contest.
Rakitic had a hand in 22 league goals - with his set piece duties having a major role in both tallies - with Paulinho back on a respectable 8. The one thing you can always say for the Brazilian, even when his form dipped for Spurs, is that he gets himself into excellent scoring positions for both club and country. A total of 72 shots last season was the most at Tottenham and don't be surprised if the best chances fall to Paulinho's feet, such is the timing of his runs into the box. Rakitic is far more creative, averaging 2.3 key passes per game to Paulinho's (0.7), but the concern will be the similarities between Croatia's threesome.
And so we come to the baby-faced assassins. While Oscar's role in Scolari's set up is as crucial as it is certain, there's a feeling that Mateo Kovacic has something to prove having not progressed quite as Inter fans would have hoped last season. Due to what Walter Mazzarri construed as a lack of tactical discipline, the 20-year old fell foul of the Italian’s system, with 18 of his 32 league appearances coming as a substitute. Another concern surrounding the youngster is his lack of goal contribution, with an outstanding hat-trick of assists against Lazio unfortunately representing something of a statistical anomaly (he managed just one more all season).
What that game did prove is that Kovacic is capable of playing in an advanced playmaker role. It's a position in which he is trusted far more so at international level then under the current Inter boss. While Kovacic is a runner with the ball, Oscar's best asset for Brazil is perhaps his movement without it. If Neymar is the obvious weapon for the Seleção, Oscar is the secret one due to what he brings out of others, despite his notoriety in the game nowadays. The 22-year old popped up with 8 league goals last season and should be backed to bag a few more this summer.
Perhaps the most intriguing facet of this midfield match up lies in the fact that although there will be similar roles to play on either side, none of the players are likely to execute them in the same manner. As a group of individuals Croatia's trio are perhaps the stronger, or at least the more in form. As a collective, however, Brazil are drilled and cover for one another's shortcomings. Though he may not have been in top condition for Chelsea of late, you can expect Oscar's ability to find space on the field to be decisive.
Who do you think will win the midfield battle between Brazil and Croatia? Let us know in the comments below
Want to know more about the task ahead for Brazil and Croatia, along with the other 30 teams at the World Cup? Find everything you need to know in our comprehensive World Cup, which you can download here
