Match Analysis: Chelsea Hoping to Dent United's Title Hopes

It’s Super Sunday this weekend, but not quite as we know it. In years gone by, Chelsea and Man United would be virtually neck-and-neck at this point, but with Andre Villas-Boas’ side lagging 12 points behind their rivals, there perhaps isn’t the usual level of anticipation.

Nevertheless, the Stamford Bridge clash won’t be lacking in commitment. The new Chelsea boss may have already written off the title but his charges will be doing all they can to dent United’s bid to retain the championship. Sir Alex Ferguson will be readying his side for a tough run of fixtures, with clashes against Liverpool and Spurs also on the agenda over the next month. With Villas-Boas feeling aggrieved with the 3-1 Old Trafford reverse earlier in the season, vengeance will be firmly on his mind.

Likely Line-Ups

John Terry is unlikely to feature with a knee problem for the hosts, who will be hoping Frank Lampard recovers from injury in time for the weekend; the midfielder missed the midweek draw at Swansea due to a calf problem. The Blues were dealt a significant blow in their previous game, with Ashley Cole receiving his marching orders after picking up two yellow cards; Villas-Boas will need to further reshuffle his back-four. Jose Bosingwa could move to left-back, with Branislav Ivanovic at right-back and Gary Cahill possibly making his debut alongside David Luiz, though Ryan Bertrand is another option on the left. With Ramires ruled out due to knee trouble, Michael Essien could come back into the starting XI, having been benched at the Liberty Stadium on Tuesday.

For United, there are several injury issues for Sir Alex Ferguson to deal with. Aside from the long-term lay-offs to the likes of Nemanja Vidic and Darren Fletcher, the visitors have concerns over Nani, and Wayne Rooney - the pair missed the midweek win over Stoke but have since trained and are hoping to be included in the squad.  While Phil Jones remains sidelined, Ashley Young has a chance of coming back from a knee problem - he could play on the left if Nani is out, with Antonio Valencia on the right. In goal, both Anders Lindegaard and David De Gea were unavailable on Tuesday, affording Ben Amos a rare start. Danny Welbeck was rested in midweek and looks set to return to the first-team.

Recent Form

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last four – the longest run of any Premier League side right now - but that fails to tell the whole story. Two wins in their last eight is more indicative of their lack of form and, with just 6 goals scored and 6 goals conceded in their last 6 games, it’s something of an understatement to say they are currently a work in progress. With Tottenham 7 points ahead in third place, fourth in the league may be as good as it gets this season for Villas-Boas.

United have won four of their last six matches (or eight of their last ten) in a run of form that has seen them draw level with bitter rivals City at the summit. Those last six games have seen Ferguson’s side score 14 times – more than any other side over the same period and more than double Chelsea’s tally - while conceding 7.

Creative Differences

A look at each team’s Positional Statistics shows Chelsea have a preference for attacking down the left flank, with 37% of their forward moves coming from this side of the pitch. United, on the other hand, favour the right wing; 36% of their attacks come from here. With this in mind, then, we look at the main creator for each side over the season so far; Juan Mata, on the Chelsea left, and Antonio Valencia, on United’s right.

Juan Mata

The Spaniard has created more goalscoring opportunities per game than any other player in the Premier League. In his debut season, Mata has averaged 3.2 key passes per game, and with Frank Lampard next best for Chelsea with 1.8, his ability to lay on chances for teammates has been crucial. The problem for Mata is that his teammates are simply failing to convert his key passes into goals.

Chelsea’s first 14 games saw them score plenty, netting 29 times and conceding 16. Mata revelled in a more attacking approach, picking up 7 assists, but the subsequent nine games have been fruitless for the former Valencia man. While Chelsea have attempted to sit deeper, they have scored just 10 goals and conceded 9; as a result Mata has failed to pick up a single assist in his last nine appearances.

It’s hardly his fault, though. A look at the finishing stats of Chelsea’s three main strikers reveals why Mata is failing to produce. Daniel Sturridge, the top-scoring forward with 9 goals, has hit the net with every 5.8 efforts, a decent enough ratio, but Drogba and Torres have been woeful. The former has scored just 3 goals from 41 attempts, an average of 1 goal per 13.6 shots, while Torres has scored 2 goals from 38 efforts, or 1 per 19 shots.

Antonio Valencia

The Ecuadorian has been outstanding since returning as a regular first-team starter back in early December. In his last 10 appearances, Valencia has produced 8 assists, making him second only to David Silva for assists this season. His key passes (1.9) are nowhere near the level of Mata, while his shots per game (0.7) are almost a third of Mata’s 2. Nevertheless, Valencia edges the Chelsea man in the WhoScored ratings, by 7.4 to 7.37.

A look at the conversion rate of the four forwards used by United this season highlights the crucial difference between the two teams this season.

While Sturridge has managed the most shots for Chelsea, his 53 is dwarfed by Rooney’s total of 90. Rooney is joint-top in the Premier League for shots per game (4.5) and as a result, has netted 13 times - an average of 1 goal per 6.9 attempts. His conversion rate, however, is the worst of the United forwards.

Javier Hernandez has netted 7 times from just 1.4 shots per game, the lowest of any United frontman, and has found the net with every 3.8 efforts. Danny Welbeck, Rooney’s main strike partner this season, has managed a goal with every 6.1 attempts, while Dimitar Berbatov has been the most clinical of all Sir Alex Ferguson’s forward. The Bulgarian has scored 7 goals from just 15 shots; an average of 1 goal per 2.1 attempts.

While United have conceded just 5 goals less than Chelsea, they have found the net 56 times compared to the Blues’ 41. As a result, their goal difference is superior by 20; a clear indication of their lethal nature in front of goal in comparison to Villas-Boas’ side.

With Terry and Cole set to be sidelined this weekend, United look in the mood to wreak havoc at Stamford Bridge and take advantage of the home side’s patched up defence. Unless Chelsea can rediscover their ability to find the net with any sort of regularity, you get the feeling that Sunday may not be quite so “Super” after all for Villas-Boas and co.