Manchester United among clubs most affected by losing home advantage in 'Project Restart'


As Premier League players begin to return to some semblance of football training this week - initially in small groups and with minimal to no contact - there is no doubt that a return to action is looking likely. Indeed, it is believed that in a months time the season will resume, with matches of course set to be played behind closed doors.

As part of 'Project Restart' it was suggested at the start of this month that finishing the season at neutral venues will be the only feasible way to complete the campaign.

The news was immediately met with disapproval from a number of clubs, most notably those mired in a relegation battle. It's certainly the case that some teams are more heavily reliant on home form than others, albeit if the main advantage a team gets from playing at home is the support of the fans that will no longer be in attendance.

It's an advantage that some feel is overplayed but one that is undeniable when looking at the results in any given season. Familiar surroundings and playing surfaces do make a difference in general. In the current campaign to date, after all, 17 of the 20 Premier League teams have picked up more points per game at home than away, with very different degrees of reliance.

Indeed, based on the aforementioned numbers, it's not just the basement battle that could be heavily affected by the loss of home advantage, but the race for European spots too.

It's Everton - still in with a faint chance of a Europa League finish - that have leant heaviest on their home record this season, picking up just shy of a point fewer per game away from Goodison Park (.99). Next up, meanwhile, are Tottenham (.86 points per game fewer on the road) and Manchester United (.79 fewer on average).

Given Manchester City's two-year ban from the Champions League, both are still very much in with a shot at a top-five finish, with the Red Devils currently occupying said fifth spot.

By contrast, three teams directly competing for a European finish have been far less impacted by where their matches have been played. Sheffield United, currently seventh but with a game in hand that could narrow the gap to United to just a point, have only averaged .14 points per game fewer at home than they have on their travels.

Meanwhile, Wolves - sixth and two points back on United - have actually picked up marginally more points per game away from Molineux this season (.03). Chelsea are even stronger on the road, having averaged .11 points per game more than they have at Stamford Bridge, while Southampton - in all likelihood out of danger after a strong year to date - have relished the chance to get away from St. Mary's, averaging .50 points per game more on their travels.

While Saints may be safe, it's fair to say the six sides below them are far from it, and it's those six sides that have undoubtedly taken the most convincing that the league should not simply be voided.

 

Manchester United among clubs most affected by losing home advantage in 'Project Restart'

 

Of said sides, it's Aston Villa that undoubtedly posed the biggest obstacle to any suggestion that the season be concluded as it is. They sit 19th but a win in their game in hand - a home match against Sheffield United - would see them climb three places.

The fact that Dean Smith's side's extra fixture is at Villa Park is pertinent too, with last season's Championship play-off winners having played two fewer home matches (13) than almost half the teams in the division. They too are one of the sides that have been most reliant on home status this season, with the fourth highest points difference compared to playing on the road (.78 per game).

As such Villa's argument that they haven't had a fair shot at survival is a legitimate one.

Norwich have also been considerably stronger at Carrow Road this season (earning .67 points per game more), while the likes of Brighton, Bournemouth and Watford have an almost identical points per game difference at home compared to away (from .56 to .54).

Instead it's West Ham, above the drop zone on goal difference only, that should arguably welcome the proposal for games to be played at neutral venues. Their points haul away from home is still worse than it is at the London Stadium but the difference (.27 per game) is half that of any of their relegation rivals and almost a third of Villa's.

Just how and if the remainder of the season pans out, while some may say home advantage is largely irrelevant, there is no question that a number of teams will feel having it stripped away from them entirely is not a fair solution.

Manchester United among clubs most affected by losing home advantage in 'Project Restart'