Stats Study: Man City may not be the ideal fit for goal machine Haaland
While Pep Guardiola frantically navigates his Manchester City side through their Champions League quarter-final with Borussia Dortmund, his scouts will be watching Erling Haaland’s every step.
Haaland is expected to leave Dortmund at the end of the season and his agent, Mino Raiola, and father, Alf-Inge, are already fielding proposals from Europe’s elite clubs. The race for football’s hottest property has already started.
Guardiola has already played down the importance of signings given the current economic climate but privately he will be desperate to sign a new striker when Sergio Aguero leaves this summer. Finding a replacement for the 32-year-old will be no easy task but Haaland is as close to a guarantee as you can get.
His talent is obvious. “He is fantastic, everyone knows it,” Guardiola enthused of Haaland on the eve of the game. “A blind guy can realise he’s fantastic, it’s not necessary to be a manager to realise it.”
Only 20, Haaland has already scored more Champions League goals than the likes of Ronaldinho, Zinedine Zidane, David Villa and Ronaldo Nazario. He reached 20 career goals in the competition in record time, doing so in just 14 appearances and smashing the previous record by 10 games.
Haaland heads to Manchester to face his father’s old side as the competition’s top scorer this season. The Norway international has scored 10 times in six games, at least four more than any other player and more than Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo managed combined (9). He has remarkably scored in all six appearances and has netted at least twice in each of his last four – another competition record. He has also scored against every team he has ever faced in the Champions League.
With Jadon Sancho sidelined against his former club, Haaland shoulders all of Dortmund’s hopes on Tuesday night. European football will be watching on eagerly to see how he copes with the pressure. He will need to shake an unusual dip in form to do so, having failed to score from his last 17 attempts across his last four appearances for club and country. Hardly cause for concern, but just a measure of how consistent he has been that it is the worst run since joining Dortmund. However, Haaland played a direct hand in all five of Dortmund’s goals against Sevilla in the last round of the Champions League and another dominant performance here, particularly up against Ruben Dias, would only boost his transfer value further.
The same cannot be said of his opposite number for City, Gabriel Jesus. Few are even expecting him to start on Tuesday. Even though Aguero has been unavailable for most of the campaign, Jesus has only started 18 of a possible 39 matches across league and European competition. Guardiola has instead elected to play without a recognised striker more often than not.
While Haaland has quickly built a reputation as a ruthless finisher, the same is not true of Jesus. In fact, Jesus’ profligacy has been the one criticism he has failed to shake. According to xG website Understat, Jesus finished last season with the highest expected goals in the Premier League despite only starting 21 league matches. He only scored 14 in the end, with 12 players netting more. Haaland, meanwhile, has outperformed his expected goals ever since signing for Dortmund, with a hugely impressive conversion rate of 34.3% across league and European competition. Jesus, meanwhile, has a conversion rate of just 16% since the beginning of last season, a cut below elite level.
What makes Haaland’s goalscoring streak even more impressive is he barely touches the ball, yet comes alive when the ball enters the penalty area. It’s a remarkable skill for someone not yet 21. In fact, only Robert Lewandowski is averaging fewer touches per goal (27) than Haaland (27.5) of players to have started more than 10 games in Europe’s top five leagues this season. Lewandowski is 32, with over a decade of experience behind him and more than 400 career goals to his name, whereas Haaland’s career has barely started. Moreover, Haaland is averaging a great proportion of his touches inside the opposition penalty area than any other player on the continent (25.9%). Haaland is focused on scoring goals, and lots of them. With 49 in 50 appearances for Dortmund in all competitions, he is clearly very good at it.
It’s therefore no surprise almost all of Europe want him, including City. Guardiola has even hinted City will consider breaking their transfer policy to land the youngster, something they have previously been very keen to avoid. For all of City’s immense spending down the years, their transfer record is a modest £65m. Indeed, Chelsea lavished more on Kepa Arrizabalaga, while Arsenal dropped even more to land Nicolas Pepe. Spending money doesn’t guarantee success but sometimes there are special cases and Haaland is certainly that.
On paper, at least, adding Haaland to this City team is a frightening prospect. But also an interesting one. Haaland is not just a poacher, but finishing chances is certainly his greatest skill. That won’t cut it under Guardiola and is why Aguero nearly left much earlier into his tenure as City manager. Guardiola doesn’t just want his striker to hang off the shoulder of the last defender, but also to drop deep and allow runners in behind. It is why playing without a recognised striker has been so successful for City this season, as it’s a role perhaps more naturally suited to someone like Bernardo Silva or Phil Foden.
It was a gradual process but Aguero eventually adapted to Guardiola’s demands and you would have to guess the same would be expected of Haaland. Whether he wants to do that, or indeed needs to, will likely shape his next move but you can’t help but feel City would be unstoppable with someone of Haaland’s predatory instincts up front. For now, at least, you know Guardiola will have devised a plan to prevent the Haaland show from rolling into town on Tuesday night. Whether it works remains to be seen.
