Player Focus: Is Álvaro Negredo the Right Calibre for City?

 

With Manchester City in danger of losing more ground on the title chase, with many now suggesting that Chelsea look set to be United's main challengers next season, the club are moving fast to secure two more attacking moves in the market.

The likely arrival of Stevan Jovetic has been a cause of optimism for the fans, with the 23-year old highly sought after across Europe, but it's fair to say many are reserving judgment on the potential signing of Álvaro Negredo.

Any player to score 25 league goals last season, and in a league the quality of La Liga, has clearly got something to offer. However, questions have been raised as to whether the Spaniard is of the required calibre to ensure City put up more of a fight in the upcoming campaign.

If the aforementioned pairing were to arrive at the Etihad this summer the feeling is that it would spell the end for Edin Dzeko, with Negredo likely to be the Bosnian's replacement. Newly appointed Manuel Pellegrini would then have the task of assembling a functional attack from the likes of Agüero, Silva, Jovetic, Negredo and the latter's former Sevilla teammate Jesús Navas - not to mention Nasri and Milner.

Negredo is clearly a finisher - 59 goals in the last three La Liga seasons tells you that much, with only seven players in Europe's top 5 leagues netting more in that time - but he isn't the most clinical. A tally of 25 goals in the season gone by, representing the most profitable campaign of his career, came from a huge total of 150 shots - with only Messi and Ronaldo mustering more in Spain.

His 16.7% conversion rate was respectable, but it's unlikely that it would win you a league title. The likes of Falcao and Cavani, both of whom were linked with the Manchester club earlier in the summer, boasted figures of 22.8% and 18.6% respectively.

Nevertheless, Negredo was more adept at taking his chances last season than both of City's remaining strikers, with Agüero down at 13.9% and Dzeko slightly better off, with 14.9%. In that respect any transfer would appear to be an improvement; it's just a case of whether it would be significant enough.

The former Premier League champions are likely to have to fork out in excess of £20m for a player who would turn 28 the day after their season opener against Newcastle. While it's fair to say that he is in his prime right now, the likelihood is that he will struggle to replicate such a fine season in front of goal.

Negredo was Sevilla's only real consistent goal threat last season, with next top scorer Ivan Rakitic - the club's penalty taker - on 8. At City goals are shared between their host of attacking stars far more evenly, as is playing time. Indeed, Edin Dzeko, who ended the season as the side's top league goalscorer (14), started just 16 matches.

The fact that Negredo is a player that has been prone to some barren runs doesn't bode well in a side that may well demand instant results. Although injuries took their toll the forward has had patches, usually in the middle of campaigns, when the goals have dried up a little throughout his time with Sevilla.

 

Player Focus: Is Álvaro Negredo the Right Calibre for City?

 

He's also a striker that is often guilty of a glaring miss, with City fans seeing plenty of those last season. Negredo missed more 'big chances' than any other player in Europe's top 5 leagues last season, whilst as a collective the Citizens squandered at least twenty more clear cut opportunities than any other team in England's top-flight.

One thing that will enthuse the City support is Negredo's ability to come up trumps at the business end of the season, and if City can remain in contention till the latter stages, the Spaniard's goals could prove vital. In 2010/11 half of the Sevilla man's 20 league goals came in his final 9 appearances and the next season 50% of his 14-goal tally came in his last 8.

Last season, a full 15 of his 25 goals (60%) came in his final 12 league appearances, with his tendency to come up trumps at the tail end of the season perhaps papering over the cracks of modest tallies for the first 6 months of each of the last three La Liga campaigns.

In turn it could certainly be argued that his strength is to exploit weary-legged, weak defences as the season draws on. Interestingly, in 24 appearances against the league’s heavyweights Barcelona and Real Madrid, he’s netted just 6 times, often struggling to have an impact against the very top sides.

It seems harsh to question the ability of a player that has netted such an impressive number of goals over the past few seasons, but while Negredo may well be good enough to play for Man City, whether he is the man to take them to the next level is up for debate.