Will Arsenal overcome their November hoodoo anytime soon?

As Arsene Wenger sat down for his post-match press conference at the Emirates, it was easy to work out he was angrily frustrated, because he was trying so hard to contain it. The Arsenal manager, however, has too many tells. It’s the way he clenches his fist, or leans forward at certain questions and starts responding before they’re even finished. 

He still doesn’t have as many tells as his team though. It is perhaps the most perpetually frustrating thing about Wenger’s post-2004 Arsenal. No matter the form they’re in, no matter how good they look and no matter how different it seems this season is going to be, they always give things away - most notably goals and points - at familiar points. It is like they always find a new way to fall to an old problem. 

Take this November, a month that was already given such coverage as the one when Arsenal suffer their worst form, with an average return of just 1.58 points per league game in all of Wenger’s time.This time, however, it seemed like they had a big opportunity to bury a fair few ghosts. Wenger’s side approached the month in fine form and, although some of the fixtures were ostensibly difficult, all of the key sides they were in fragile form themselves. 

Tottenham Hotspur had gone six games without a win, Manchester United had not won successive matches since August, and Paris Saint-German had been so unconvincing under new manager Unai Emery that they were third in Ligue 1 despite their huge resources. 

So, Wenger could have ended a few trends. He had the chance to finally beat Mauricio Pochettino in the league, to finally beat Jose Mourinho in a competitive match and win at Old Trafford for the first time in a decade, and to finally finish top of a Champions League group for the first time in half a decade. Even one or two of those would have added up to a better November than normal. 

Instead, it was the same old. Pochettino remains unbeaten by Wenger in the league, as does Mourinho, and it now seems certain that they will finish second in the Champions League group after a 2-2 draw with Paris Saint-Germain. The draw with the French champions summed up much of this, right down to how the injury to one Arsenal player has proven so costly. 

Sure, PSG put out a very strong team, one that on paper was arguably stronger than Arsenal’s. But without Angel Di Maria and Javier Pastore, and with the rest of the squad still adapting to Emery’s methods, they were there for the taking - especially since Arsenal had actually gone 2-1 up. 

PSG instead took control of the game, and took the point and away goals they needed to ensure a win over Ludogorets in the final group game will be enough to top the group. Here, Arsenal struggled to get close to their midfield, as Marco Verratti made 107 passes, and Thiago Motta 68. The next closest was Arsenal’s stand-in central midfielder Aaron Ramsey… with 68. Francis Coquelin meanwhile made just 41. 

If the particular pairing of Verratti and Motta meant PSG were always going to have more possession, it’s difficult not to wonder how different Arsenal would have been with Santi Cazorla there. Some figures, however, would appear to make things clear. There is a fair argument that Arsenal failed to win the title last season because Cazorla was injured from November, and some of this season would appear to bear it out. 

While the side have won nine and drawn two with Cazorla in the team in either the Premier League or Champions League, they have won just twice, drawn four times and lost once without him. It is not outlandish to say he is as important to the team as Mesut Ozil or Alexis Sanchez. 

Arsenal are just so ragged without him, as if the side’s collective IQ has dropped by several points. They would surely have had more control of the ball with him, taking it away from Verratti and Motta more often. In that context, it is all the more surprising that Wenger didn't start Granit Xhaka. It isn’t quite a Henrikh Mkhitaryan situation such as at Manchester United, but the manager’s apparent lack of trust in the Swiss international is still odd. 

It’s possible Wenger may well fear his propensity to get booked, but a bit of aggression in midfield would surely have been preferable to Motta and Verratti playing passes between them to eventually release one of Blaise Matuidi, Lucas Moura or Edinson Cavani. Had Cavani been even a bit more accurate, of course,
Arsenal could have lost this by more than one goal. The Uruguayan can be a hugely frustrating forward - especially when he attempts a chip despite so much time to take a one-on-one through - but there is still an irony to that.  

If Cavani’s finishing often feels below the level you would expect from a top striker, it comes to light because his movement is as good as anyone’s. There is also an impressive persistence to him. No matter how many times he misses, it doesn’t deter him. He still keeps getting into exceptionally good positions. He’s also played a huge part in ensuring PSG are likely to take top position in the group. 

So, with Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and one of Borussia Dortmund or Real Madrid finishing first, Arsenal have a substantial chance of another awful last-16 tie. That still isn’t as bad as previous seasons, however, and it’s worth bearing in mind that Arsenal are still unbeaten in this November. That, too, is unlike previous seasons, and it’s not bad. 

But the point is it’s not great, or even representative of progress. It’s the same sort of level. The same plateau. Arsenal had the chance to smash a few ceilings this month, but couldn’t manage one. It doesn’t inspire confidence that this could be the season they make a leap. That is just something else that needs to change.