Team Focus: Could Goal-Shy Athletic be Dragged into a Relegation Battle?

Although it is not unusual for the team which finishes fourth in La Liga to have difficulties handling Champions League commitments the following year, Athletic Club’s struggles this season are still quite startling.

Things seemed really rosy for Athletic just last August when they made good on last season’s superb achievement by easing past Napoli to make the Champions League proper. But things have gone pretty horribly since, with a quick exit at the group stages, and the apparent draining of all confidence and belief out of the team.

A six-game unbeaten streak through October and November, including a home win over Sevilla and draw at Valencia, seemed to have got their season back on track. Instead of building on that, they’ve slipped deeper into the mire.

Saturday’s 2-0 loss at Villarreal means Los Leones have taken just one point from 18 in La Liga. 19 points in 19 games is the lowest halfway points tally in the club’s history. Where this season was supposed to be about European glory, it is now shaping into a possible fight against relegation.

Valverde’s team have scored just three goals across those most recent six games. Goalscoring has been a huge issue all season - with just 15 in their first 19 games of the season [0.79 per game]. This compared to last year’s 66 in 38 matches [1.74 per game]. Most damning is that the set piece-reliant side have scored just four times from open-play at the midway point of the campaign.

The stats also [unsurprisingly] show a huge drop off in shots per game from last year. In 2014/15 their total is 9.5 efforts at goal per 90 minutes [17th of all Primera teams]. In 2013/14 that tally was 13.4 [fifth of all teams]. Athletic’s ‘chances created’ metric has also dropped, but not as much. Last year the team were creating 9.7 chances per game, this year that number is just 7.1 per 90 minutes.

Converting these chances into goals has been difficult. Injury issues for the team’s senior centre-forward and top scorer Aritz Aduriz have been a problem [of course]. Aduriz scored 16 times in 31 La Liga appearances last term; this season he has five in 15 games. Their next highest scorers this season are on just two [midfielder Ander Iturraspe and defender Mikel San Jose]. Back up strikers Borja Viguera and Kike Sola, and youngsters Guillermo and Inaki Williams, have just one goal in almost 1,000 minutes of La Liga action combined.

Defensively Athletic have not actually been that much worse this year than last. They have conceded 25 goals in 19 La Liga games so far, against 39 in 38 games last term. Their games have generally been close-enough affairs [apart from at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in October, and at home to Atletico Madrid just before Christmas]. First choice centre-backs Xabier Etxeita [7.24 rating] and Aymeric Laporte [7.02] have been performing well, and join Iturraspe and Aduriz as their side's top four performers so far.

It is not that Athletic are suddenly being out-played in games, and dominated by opposition teams. So far this season they are actually averaging more possession than last term [54.2% to 53.1%]. At Villarreal last weekend Valverde’s side managed to have 52.3% of the ball, but were out-shot 19 to 11 as they slipped to their latest defeat.

Opponents seem to have worked out that defending deep and hitting them on the break is the best approach to take against Athletic. This tendency is especially fruitful at San Mames, where strugglers Granada, Cordoba and Elche have all taken smash and grab away wins this season. It’s also true away from home - Villarreal’s opening goal on Saturday was a really well taken effort on the counter from Denis Cheryshev.

An overall drop in output among Athletic’s creative players looks to be the most serious problem of all. The loss of Ander Herrera to Manchester United last summer has been an obvious blow, with his five goals, five assists and 1.6 key passes per game being missed. His presumed replacement as main midfield playmaker was to be Benat Etxebarria, but the former Betis player has struggled back up in the Basque country. He has delivered just one goal and one assist, with 0.6 key passes per game, in 13 outings in La Liga this term.

Even more important has been a dip from wingers Iker Muniain and Markel Susaeta, who were both outstanding as Athletic finished fourth last year. Muniain scored nine goals in 39 games in all competitions last term, and was brilliant against Napoli in August’s Champions League qualifiers. However, the 21-year-old, who has been hampered by a long-standing back problem, has gone right off the boil - with just one goal and zero assists in 16 league appearances so far in 2014/15.

Susaeta is also struggling. Less high-profile than Muniain, the Eibar-born winger nonetheless managed an excellent 12 assists and six goals in La Liga last season. The current campaign has brought four assists and zero goals so far. The very talented Ibai Gomez chipped in with eight goals and two assists [often off the bench] last year, but has yet to score this season.

The alternatives are not too plentiful either. 19-year-old homegrown playmaker Unai Lopez is highly thought-of around the club’s Lezama training ground, but has understandably found it difficult coming into a struggling side and has yet to provide a goal or assist in seven starts and four substitute appearances this season. A sign of Valverde’s desperation was the always willing but technically limited Gaizka Toquero being introduced off the bench at home to Elche recently [for Muniain], to predictably little avail.

Other clubs in this situation would usually look to bring in a new attacking name, both to add extra quality to the squad, and to give everyone a general boost. However Athletic’s long-standing [and arguably laudable] Basque-only policy means their options are very limited, even if as one of La Liga's few financially solvent clubs there probably is money available to spend.

The two most obvious players to go for would be Herrera [currently struggling for game time at United] or Juventus’ Fernando Llorente but neither seem likely to return in the short term. The best performing Basque players elsewhere are generally either deep midfielders [Asier Illarramendi, Mikel Arteta] or defenders [Cesar Azpilicueta, Nacho Monreal].

A presidential election is looming, but any challengers to current club chief Josu Urrutia have limited scope to add potential marquee signings to their ticket. Valverde is a close friend of Urrutia, and his job looks to be secure in the short term. Therefore Athletic fans will just have to persevere with the coach and players they have, and hope that an upturn in confidence and productivity in attacking areas comes from somewhere.

The cups are one potential bright spot, as they are still in the Europa League and Copa del Rey [although almost blowing a two-goal first leg advantage against Celta Vigo last week brought the latest whistles around San Mames]. With their team now just three points above the relegation zone it is even arguable that all their focus should now be on their league position. Optimism is understandably in short supply around Bilbao at the moment.

Will Athletic find the firepower needed from within to avoid a relegation battle this season? Let us know in the comments below