Chelsea vs Lille: Kepa's form at the forefront of Chelsea's problems threatening European exit
Kurt Zouma has called Tuesday's encounter with Lille a cup final, as Chelsea bid to get the result they need to qualify for the knockout stage of the Champions League. Chelsea head into the final round of group matches in third but know they are guarenteed to go through if they beat fourth-place Lille at Stamford Bridge. It should be a relatively straight-forward task for Chelsea but things are not going right for Frank Lampard's side at the moment.
Chelsea's preparations for Wednesday's game were rocked by a shock 3-1 defeat away to Everton on Saturday. Chelsea have now won just three of their last nine matches and have lost four times in that spell. They have kept just four clean sheets in 24 matches in all competitions this season. Chelsea have also confirmed promising centre-back Fikayo Tomori is ruled out in midweek through injury. It doesn't inspire great confidence heading into a game you simply have to win.
Less than a week since Chelsea succesfully overturned their FIFA-imposed transfer ban, Lampard has already been forced to downplay suggestions the club will look to solve all their problems in the January transfer window. It would be counter-intuitive to say otherwise but Lampard will surely have defensive targets in mind for next month.
It's not all doom and gloom for Chelsea, however. Far from it. Tuesday could have been much more problematic for them. They could have been playing Valencia or Ajax. Instead they are at home to a Lille side who are guaranteed to finish bottom and with nothing left to play for in Europe. Chelsea are also boosted by the return of Antonio Rudiger, who has been out injured since mid-September. Rudiger is Chelsea's most senior centre-back at the age of just 26 after Lampard sanctioned the departures of Gary Cahill and David Luiz in the summer.
Team news, probable XIs and predicted outcome
Andreas Christensen, Tomori and Zouma have all shown encouraging signs at stages this season but they need help. Zouma, meanwhile, turned 25 in October and can no longer rely on 'promise'. It's why Rudiger's return is so key for Chelsea and could prove a pivotal moment in Lampard's first season in charge of the club. Over the next month Lampard will find out whether he needs to sign a new centre-back in January or not.
Chelsea currently sit fourth in the Premier League and are at least favourites to go through in the Champions League, though their position is not as secure as it has been. Manchester United and Tottenham have shown signs of resurgence in the race to finish fourth, while successive draws in Europe has led to a tense finish in Group H.
It's not just Chelsea's centre-backs that should be looking over their shoulder. Kepa has underwhelmed since he joined Chelsea in a staggering deal worth £71.6m in the summer of 2018. Chelsea made Kepa the most expensive goalkeeper of all-time to sign him but his performances are yet to warrant that sort of fee. He is not even among the top three goalkeepers in the Premier League, let alone the world.
In fact of goalkeepers that have made more than 10 appearances in the Premier League this season, Kepa has the worst save success rate (58.5%). When factoring in the other top five leagues in Europe, only three have a lower return than the Spain international. Impressively, only Manchester City (7.5) concede fewer shots per game than Chelsea (9.2) in the Premier League this season but Chelsea have managed just three clean sheets in 16 attempts. It's unlikely Chelsea will sign a new goalkeeper to seriously threaten his position in the near future but his form should at least be cause for concern.
It's always difficult to gauge how teams with nothing to play for will turn up. On one hand it is natural to assume they will play within themselves, but playing without any pressure could also bring the best out of them. Even though Lille have struggled away from home this season, with just one win in 10 in all competitions, they have still been a threat in most of those. They have scored in six of their last seven, triumphed at Lyon last time out on the road, and were unfortunate to lose at PSG before that. They had twice as many shots on target (8) as PSG only to be denied a share of the points at the very least by an inspired display from goalkeeper Keylor Navas.
Going out of the Champions League would be a catastrophe for Lampard and Wednesday's game starts a defining run until January. Lampard insists a winter spending spree is not necessarily on the cards but that will surely change if their defensive woes show no signs of improving over the winter period, especially with Rudiger now available again.
