Top tips - why another tight game could be on the cards for England
England begin a new unexpected reign under interim manager Gareth Southgate, who has been asked to step up from Under-21 duties to take charge of the next four qualifiers. That run starts with a home game against the groups lowest seeds Malta, so it’s understandable that the Three Lions are huge favourites to secure a comfortable victory.
Is anything ever comfortable as far as England are concerned though?
With that in mind we bring you our tips for Saturday’s Wembley showdown, placing significantly less faith in the hosts to secure a rout than bet365.
As far as our bookmaker partners are concerned the most likely scoreline - currently placed at 4.50 - is a 4-0 England win, but the game against Slovakia certainly didn’t instill any great confidence that this side has learned lessons from the Euros.
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Indeed, in Sam Allardyce’s only match as England boss his side mustered 20 shots to Slovakia’s one but only managed to secure victory courtesy of a scrappy injury time goal from Adam Lallana. With the Liverpool man and former Red Raheem Sterling both sidelined having both began the Premier League campaign in fine form, and Harry Kane also ruled out, England’s attacking options have been weakened.
For a side that has now claimed global notoriety for being unable to break down a deep block, there’s no prizes for guessing how Saturday’s visiting minnows will set up. Moreover, Malta have proven to be no mugs against sides with far greater footballing reputations themselves in the recent past, admittedly overlooking their last result.
However, a 5-1 defeat to Scotland requires context with the underdogs well in the game at 2-1 and looking dangerous before a harsh 60th minute dismissal led to their eventual collapse. Looking further back to their Euro 2016 qualifying group, Malta picked up some notable results. They lost just 1-0 home and away against Italy, and by the same scoreline to at home against Croatia. Indeed, across all five away games in that group they never lost by more than two goals.
The odds on under 2.5 goals this weekend at 6.60 with bet365 are huge and very tempting as a result, but also suggest that a look at the alternative over/under markets would be wise. That’s where our first tip lies, with odds on under 3.5 goals at 3.00 too good to resist considering England haven’t won any of their ten games in 2016 by more than a single goal.
Our second tip is in the goalscorer market, backing Marcus Rashford to grasp his chance to shine with both hands. While he has featured for the England senior side, the teenager is yet to start a competitive game and if he does it would represent another landmark achievement for the United man, who likes to mark such occasions with a goal.
Indeed, since scoring on his debut for the Red Devils in the Europa League the 18-year old has gone on to score on his Premier League, League Cup, England U21s and senior international debut, as well as netting in his first Manchester derby. Odds of 1.40 to score anytime aren’t exactly appealing though, so we’re opting for the youngster to score first at 4.00. He has managed that feat in seven of his 12 goalscoring appearances for club and country (including U21s).
Our final bet is the 'half with the most goals scored' and, given that we are tipping a tighter game than many might expect, Southgate’s first match in charge may well be a slightly cagey affair at first. Given that of the nine England games that have involved goals in 2016, seven have seen a majority scored after the interval, odds of 1.90 are favourable enough for another repeat, particularly as Maltese legs start to tire in the closing stages.
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