Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid is much more than your regular Champions League final. This is a final between two fierce clubs from the same city, but one also stoked by the memories from Lisbon two years ago where Atletico were seconds from winning their first Champions League title. Now the story is completely different.
In the 2014 Champions League football Atletico had lost Arda Turan in the build-up to the game and Diego Costa after 10 minutes. Two key players gone before the game had really started and neither of their replacements offered anything in the same level of class. And Real Madrid, in spite of the fact everything was going in their favour, only managed to equalise with one minute remaining. Angel Di Maria was the undisputed star player of that final and he is no longer around. Cristiano Ronaldo, despite not having a brilliant game, was on course to being named world player of the year for the third time, and while he has still scored more than 50 goals in all competitions this season, it is true that he is not the same player from two years ago. So many indicators that seem to show the colours of Atletico over the final in Milan…
Take a look at the two managers. Diego Simeone is used to being labelled ‘anti-football’, but he doesn’t care. Ronaldo – the Brazilian striker – said he doesn’t like the football Simeone is transmitting to the players, to which Simeone replied to his former Inter teammate: “Football is like politics and religion everybody is entitled to his own opinion”. However, Simeone is actually a different manager and there has been an evolution in his tactics and style, which he hasn’t been given enough credit for. Atleti defeated Bayern and Barcelona en route to the final in a very different way we are used to seeing. In those matches they came out the blocks quickly, pressing high up the pitch in search of an early goal. And as they did in the quarters and semis, then good luck overturning the scoreline.
Like Simeone, Zidane has also reversed the tables from what was expected from him. The Madrid manager has learned his trade as the competition has evolved and he has got smarter with it. It’s a given that they will enjoy the lion’s share of possession on Saturday, but - after being exposed by Wolfsburg – Zidane has ensured they are far more balanced. Casemiro guarantees the tactical key, the one player Florentino Perez didn’t want Rafa Benitez to start. Only Marcelo (7.36) has gained a higher WhoScored.com rating than Casemiro (7.34) of all defensively minded players for Madrid in league and in Europe this season. He’s completed more tackles (106) and committed more fouls (61) than any other player. Madrid simply do not have anyone else like him. Casemiro, in some ways, is actually the embodiment of Claude Makelele and his importance during the Galacticos generation. Zidane was there as a player then, and he knows about Madrid’s downfall after Makelele was sold…
While this is a battle between two Spanish clubs at San Siro, the French flag could also be a prevalent one in Milan. It’s too easy to focus on Cristiano Ronaldo and forget about the importance of Karim Benzema. The Madrid striker was not called up by the national team and will want to finish the season with a statement, a fortnight before the Euros begin. His counterpart on the evening, Antoine Griezmann, has been included in the France squad. He is Atletico’s highest rated player in attack (7.52). has scored 17 more goals than any other teammate (29) and has had 60% more shots than any other Atletico player in the Champions League this season (30).
The Verdict
Expect a closely fought, tense match between these two Spanish giants. Both teams will know that one mistake could be fatal. Recent history also suggests this will be a low scoring affair with each of their last four encounters coming in under 2.5 goals, in which three of those matches has finished with only one team on the scoreboard - Bet365 prices Both Teams Not to Score at 1.80.
Alternatively, given how Atletico have approached recent Champions League matches, a smash and grab start before returning to their siege mentality represents appealing odds of 5.00 on Bet365.
For those looking for a correct scoreline, Atletico seeing out a 1-0 victory would be typical Simone and you can get odds of 8.00 for that result on Bet365. Atletico have only lost one of the resulting 10 matches against their city rivals since their 2014 Champions League final...
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