There are plenty of games to look forward to this weekend across the Premier League, Serie A and the Bundesliga, including the Manchester derby, Napoli-Roma and Der Klassiker in Germany. Each of those games could have consequences in their respective title races, and in each one there will be a team involved who has failed to live up to expectations this season.
LIKELY BETS
Everton vs Swansea: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.72
When Everton are at home, goals are a guarantee: nobody has generated as many goals in front of their own fans as the Toffees, with games at Goodison Park averaging of 5.25 goals scored. Moreover, 10 of Swansea's last 12 away games have seen both teams score. In fact, the weaknesses of both teams according to WhoScored highlights that 7 out of Everton's 8 weaknesses and all 5 of Swansea's are linked to defensive issues.
Sampdoria vs Fiorentina: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.65
Here is a game between two of most defensively organised teams in Serie A - but that doesn't necessarily mean being a defensive team. Mihajlovic has built an intense Sampdoria team who press from the front, while Montella has concentrated more on his team's defence this season and that has cost them goals of their own. Sampdoria have the best home defence in Serie A - only 1 goal conceded; Fiorentina have the the 2nd best away - 4 goals conceded. The teams have played 18 league games between them this season, with 14 of them going under 2.5.
Granada vs Real Madrid: AWAY WIN (Real Madrid -1.5) @ 1.65
Only Real Sociedad have been able to stop the Madrid juggernaut's storming progress across Spain. In every other game, Los Blancos have proven unstoppable, and it is getting to the point that their opponents' main preoccupation is not trying to sneak a point but rather trying to avoid humiliation. That's why Real Madrid winning by at least a 2-goal margin seems as predictable as they come. It is no surprise that the WhoScored Match Forecast is a list of 5 ways in which Real Madrid will score and dominate the tie.
TEMPTING BETS
Athletic Club vs Sevilla: AWAY WIN @ 2.90
Comparing the league form of these two at present is like comparing fast food to fine dining. The hosts currently sit just 3 points above the relegation zone, while Sevilla come into the fixture 2nd in La Liga on goal difference. Factor in Athletic’s must-win Champions League meeting with FC Porto on Wednesday - failure to win would see them miss out on a place in the last-16 of Europe’s elite competition - and Los Leones’ thoughts are likely to be elsewhere when Sevilla come to town.
Schalke vs Augsburg: HOME WIN @ 1.90
Roberto Di Matteo has stabilised Schalke following their lacklustre start to the season - 2 wins in his opening 3 competitive games in charge, with his only defeat coming away in the 1-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen. The WhoScored match forecast suggests it is 'Likely' that Schalke ‘will score as a result of an opposition error’.
Olympique Marseille vs Lens: MARSEILLE HALF TIME/FULL TIME @ 1.66
With one week to go until the showdown with PSG, now is not the time to waste the opportunity to come into ‘Le Classique’ with, at least, a 4-point advantage over Les Parisiens. With Marseille favourites - Lens sit 16th in Ligue 1 – it’s worth noting that 3 of L’OM’s 4 home victories this season has seen them winning at both half time and full time. Furthermore, the WhoScored Match Forecast suggests 4 different ways that Marseille will score.
LONG-SHOT BETS
Manchester City vs Manchester United: DRAW @ 3.75
Moscow are United's strongest ally right now as City's fixture against CSKA is a matter of life or death to their Champions League aspirations. That's not to say that Pellegrini's side won't give their all in the 90 minutes, but simply their approach this week has surely being influenced by that upcoming game. Van Gaal's gang have definitely performed better when facing big clubs, which is the best indicator of team spirit, one of the most important factors in a derby.
The likes of Yaya Tourè, David Silva and Radamel Falcao are all doubts ahead of the game, though only the latter could be replaced without any trauma. It's a game of strikers: United fans will tremble just thinking of their shaky defence trying to contain Aguero, while Van Persie, on his day, could see Demichelis have one of his old days. The balance is also highlighted by the WhoScored match forecast predicting 3 situations: a likely high number of cards shown; a likely long shot goal from City; and a very likely successful free-kick for United.
Napoli vs Roma: DRAW @ 3.30
The wind is blowing in Roma's favour, while Napoli are constantly moving up and down the table. Nevertheless, the giallorossi will have to cope with a heated atmosphere surrounding them, a consequence of the tragic events of the last Coppa Italia final in Rome. For this reason, Roma will, strangely, travel to Naples by private jet (in spite of a 45 minute train journey between the two cities) and will be constantly escorted by an impressive security structure.
It might play a role in the players' minds, paired with the few chances that Benitez's side will afford the romanisti: the Spaniard knows that the way Napoli are playing at the moment doesn't allow for a naive attitude against such a quality team high in confidence. Last but not least, a positive result for the partenopei is a must in order to balance the increasing disappointment of their failings against smaller teams. The spotlight is on the right side of the pitch, where Pjanic could find the space to offer some more assists like the fine one against Cesena, and where Insigne (on the left for Napoli) is usually the litmus test to understand whether Napoli are in the game.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: DRAW @ 4.50
It is almost unthinkable that losing this game would end Dortmund's feint title aspirations, leaving them 17 points behind the Guardiola armada. Having 9 points in Champions League going into a home game vs Galatasaray will mean that strangely for Klopp the league game is more crucial this time around. This is the match to raise the intensity to the fabulous Klopp level.
It's not that such a factor would be enough to stop Bayern, but the visitors have never failed to impress when facing the Bavarians. Reading into the WhoScored match forecast, it is 'very likely' that 'Bayern Munich will score as a result of an opposition error', but also 'likely' that 'Borussia Dortmund will create many scoring chances'. There is a good chance that Lewandowski will return to haunt Dortmund, while on the other side Reus could be the man that represents the future (of Bayern) to protect Dortmund's hopes, with the favourable prospect of Rafinha facing him.
What are your top tips for the weekend's games? Let us know in the comments below
