Assessing Hoffenheim's bid for Europe under 'Mini Mourinho' Nagelsmann

It’s fair to say that the top two in the Bundesliga have tricky away games to negotiate as domestic action returns following the international break. Surprise package RB Leipzig have to travel to the BayArena to face Bayer 04, while leaders - by virtue of goal difference alone - Bayern are in Dortmund for the first Klassiker of the league season.

While it’s all ifs, buts and maybes at this stage, it’s certainly conceivable that the chasing pack could make ground in gameweek 11, led by another real success story of the hinrunde.

Having avoided a relegation play-off on the final day of the 2015/16 season, doing so by a solitary point, few could have predicted just how far Hoffenheim would come this time around. While it’s true that the club made notable improvements following the fast-tracked appointment of Julian Nagelsmann - taking the reins from Huub Stevens with the club in 17th back in February - an assault on the European places seemed a highly unlikely proposition heading into the campaign.

Hoffenheim, after all, lost their star man for the second summer running as Kevin Volland eventually followed Roberto Firmino, who had shone in 2014/15 (7.79 rating), through the exit door. Not only was the 24-year old the club’s highest rated player last season (7.04), but he was joint top scorer (8 goals) and chief creator (7 assists). For a side that scored a modest 39 goals last season, Volland’s would surely prove a huge loss.

However, following a summer window that has since proven to be an incredibly successful one for 1899, goals have not proven hard to come by at all thus far, despite not really having an overly prolific front man.

While summer additions Sandro Wagner (4), Kerem Demirbay (3) and Andrej Kramaric (3) - who the club showed a great deal of faith in to sign permanently for a considerable fee after a successful loan spell - have all chipped in with their fair share, the goals have been spread among the team. With Lukas Rupp also notching twice, the fact that two thirds of the side’s goals thus far have been scored by summer signings further highlights just how quickly the manager has translated his ideas to the new recruits.

It’s the sense that there is no real star in this side anymore following the aforementioned departures that has actually seemed to galvanise a group of modest talents to perform above expectations. While the players mentioned before are proving to be no mugs, with Demirbay in particular shining thus far with a team high rating of 7.75, the onus is on the collective to ensure that their issues at both ends last season have been resolved.

The fact that Hoffenheim are already 14 points better off after ten matches this season (20) than last (6) is, after all, due to marked improvements in the defensive third as well as in front of goal. While they remain far from infallible in that regard, shipping seven goals in the first four games of the season, the fact that Bayern needed an own goal to secure a point against Nagelsmann’s charges ahead of the break means that it’s been a month now since an opposition player has found a way past Oliver Baumann.

The recent improvements can be attributed to an effective transition to a back three formation that continues to grow in popularity. Indeed, in the last six games - in which Hoffenheim’s only points dropped came against the champions - Nagelsmann has deployed another summer acquisition at the heart of his defence in Kevin Vogt, who was a defensive midfielder during his time with Cologne. With underrated captain Sebastian Rudy shielding the defensive trio, Nagelsmann may just have found a solution to the team’s problems at the back from last season.

Vogt’s natural tendency to play the simple pass means he distributes effectively from the back, completing 88% of his passes, flanked by fellow new arrival Benjamin Huber, who starred for Ingolstadt last season, and Niklas Sule. It’s the latter that looks likely to be the next Hoffenheim player to be subject of big money offers, and understandably so. The giant 21-year old has attracted interest from across the continent and, along with Vogt, is key to Nagelsmann’s approach in playing out from the back. He averages the most passes per game (54.4) for the club at an 89.2% accuracy for a side that tries to avoid long punts upfield - with 63 per game among the fewest in the league.

In fact, it’s clear in the passing stats that the club’s ambitious young boss wants his side to compete with the very best in the league, not only in terms of results but also playing style. Only last season’s top four have averaged fewer long balls per game and more short passes per game (406), while only Bayern have fired off more shots (15.6). They’re the stats of a side that isn’t sitting pretty in third by some sort of fluke but one that has a realistic shot of breaking into the European places this season.

If Hoffenheim can remain in the mix for the top six places, there’s little doubt that it won’t be the playing staff that are subject of inquiries from the biggest club’s in Europe. Nagelsmann, at 29, is already sure to be on the radar of Germany’s biggest clubs - his work with the youth sides at Hoffenheim already alerted the attentions of Bayern after all. Indeed, the young coach - who was forced to retire from playing the game at a very young age through injury - rejected the advances of the Bavarians to join their staff in favour of this current project.

Hoffenheim, though, are under no illusions that they’re likely to be able to keep hold of their man too much longer. Nagelsmann has defeated the odds to command the respect of players older than himself due to his meticulous work on and off the training field and understanding of the modern game across the continent. Coined the 'Mini Mourinho' as a result, at this stage his own career prospects seem limitless.

For the time being, though, Hoffenheim deserve an immense amount of credit for taking a risk that some felt was nothing more than a PR stunt in Germany. They may just have a chance of closing the 4-point gap at the top of the Bundesliga this weekend as they host bottom of the league Hamburg, now under the tutelage of the manager that Nagelsmann was assistant to a little over a year ago, Markus Gisdol.

Having claimed to have taken a great deal from those he has worked with in his coaching career to date, not least Thomas Tuchel whilst at Augsburg, the student is very much becoming the master, and he’s not 30 until July!