Liverpool, Manchester and Dortmund is where the primary betting tips are to be found this weekend as domestic action returns following the international break.
LIKELY BETS
Milan vs Genoa: MILAN TO WIN @1.44
The poor run form has to stop for the Rossoneri sooner or later, with the club languishing just the 4 points above the relegation zone. Genoa have won 4 of the 6 Serie A games Gian Piero Gasperini has taken charge of since returning to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. As a result, I Rossoblu may not have necessary hunger to pick up all 3 points at the San Siro, where Genoa have lost 5 of their last 6 Serie A meetings with Milan. The WhoScored match forecast suggests it is likely Milan 'will score from a wing play situation'.
Almeria vs Real Madrid: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.61
Carlo Ancelotti is struggling to tighten up his side's defence away from the Bernabeu: Madrid have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per away game - a rate greater than 16th-placed Celta Vigo! The last league trip that ended with a clean sheet was back in August. Nobody doubts that the merengues will score, but things are still not quite working defensively, and now without the injured Sami Khedira the task will be even greater.
Augsburg vs Hoffenheim: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.57
In Augsburg, the team with the 5th worst home defence in the Bundesliga hosts the team with the 2nd worst. Actually 7 of Augsburg's last 8 games ended with both teams scoring (the only one where it didn't happen was at Bayern Munich), while Hoffenheim's last 16 league games have seem both teams score; a run going back to April. In fact, the WhoScored match forecast predicts that it is very likely that Hoffenheim 'will make a comeback if they go behind'.
TEMPTING BETS
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @2.00
Despite possessing one of the best attacks of the Premier League, Manchester City have struggled to score when up against domestic counterparts that are defensively solid. Tottenham Hotspur boast the strongest record in the league at the back away from home having conceded just 1 goal in 5 games, while netting 4 in the process with all of their away fixtures resulting in 2 or fewer goals being scored. Manuel Pellegrini will need to ensure City don’t concede as one of Tottenham's main WhoScored strengths is 'protecting the lead'.
Barcelona vs Granada: OVER 3.5 GOALS @2.00
Pretty exceptional odds on at least 4 goals being scored in Camp Nou, considering that this has already happened in 4 of their 7 league games at home, while Barcelona have netted an average of 3.5 goals per encounter in Catalonia. The WhoScored match forecast suggests it is very likely that Barcelona 'will control the game in the opposition's half'. And in such situations for Barcelona, goals are expected.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: BAYERN TO WIN @2.00
All the factors going into this game are in Bayern's favour. It won't be easy at all, but Dortmund's first choice back line are all out through injury as well as Gundogan, who offers the best defensive protection in the side. For Bayern - and for Guardiola - the wound from the defeat in the German Supercup is still raw, having cast a shadow over their new project. Bayern will have a favourable fixture in Moscow, while Borussia will have a decisive game against Napoli the following week that could change their whole season. It doesn't mean that they won't fight, that just won't happen under Klopp, but their Champions League game is a must win.
LONG SHOT BETS
Udinese vs Fiorentina: FIORENTINA TO WIN @2.60
This is a game that has always been entertaining, but Udinese's problem nowadays is that the quality of their football diminished some time ago. Meanwhile Fiorentina have learned to be clinical when necessary, without forgetting how good they are when playing the ball around. Giuseppe Rossi is fully deserving of his position as Serie A's top scorer and could be the difference here.
Everton vs Liverpool: DRAW FIRST HALF @2.20
It's been a long time since a Merseyside derby has meant so much for the league standings of both sides. Previously the two were only really battling for a Europa League spot, but now both have Champions League aspirations. Everton's position, sitting just 3 points behind the Reds, is perhaps even more surprising than Liverpool's brilliant start, so an already tense game will be even more so. Everton have the third best defensive record at home and while a victory will be important to both sides, avoiding mistakes early on could be even more crucial.
Nantes vs Monaco: MONACO TO WIN @2.25
Another bad result could be fatal for Ranieri's side, already 5 points behind PSG. It is true that both teams here have just been promoted and that Nantes are only 3 points behind Monaco, but their attitudes towards this game will be very different; Monaco have it all to play for as they are still harbouring ambitions of winning the title. The odds on an away win are remarkable, to say the least.
Let us know who you'll be backing this weekend in the comments below
