Can Ulloa Ease Vardy's Absence in Leicester's Title Run-in?

When Leonardo Ulloa stepped up to take Leicester’s last minute penalty on Sunday afternoon, the hopes of the Foxes fans rested firmly on his shoulders. Any pressure thrust upon the one-time club record signing, though, swiftly evaporated as Ulloa blasted past Adrian to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat at the King Power Stadium. The odds were firmly stacked against Leicester following Jamie Vardy’s red card early in the second half. 

The England international has since been charged with improper conduct and is likely to miss crunch meetings with Swansea and Manchester United as the Premier League season nears its climax. His absence comes as a big blow to Claudio Ranieri’s side in the final stretch. Vardy has scored 22 of Leicester’s 59 league goals this season (37.3%) and is a key component in the counter attacking approach that has served the club so well this season. 

Maximising his speed both on and off the ball, running in behind opposition defences as a means of hitting the back of the net, his absence will throw Leicester’s seemingly unstoppable gameplan into disarray over the coming weeks. It’s not only his offensive influence that Leicester will miss, but his defensive work from the front. Vardy has won possession in the attacking third more times (30) than any other player in the Premier League this season. 

With Leicester averaging the third-least possession (45%) in England’s top tier this term, Vardy’s importance is magnified. He is the first line of defence, which for a team that is happy to allow the opposition the ball, is crucial and will be missed over - potentially - the next 180 minutes of league football. Ulloa is the most likely man to replace Vardy in the starting XI, particularly if Ranieri opts to continue with the tried and tested 4-4-2 formation that has served his side so well this season. 

If it is - as expected - a straight swap of Ulloa for Vardy in the next two games, with the former partnering Shinji Okazaki up front, then Ranieri may need to live up to his tinkerman tag and alter Leicester’s approach against Swansea and United. While Vardy will hang on the shoulder of the last defender, Ulloa is better suited operating with his back to goal, holding up possession to bring others into play. 

Of course, with the Foxes adopting a counter-attacking approach, this won’t hinder their intention to soak up pressure and hit teams on the break. If anything, it could see Leicester land more of their passes than usual - the Premier League table toppers have the worst pass success rate (70%) this season - with Ulloa in attack rather than Vardy, particularly if the former can bring down the long balls upfield rather than Leicester relying on the latter to run the channels to attack. 

This could in fact provide a much-needed change in tack for Leicester, with opposition sides now well aware of their approach, though often powerless to hinder the Foxes given their ruthless efficiency. With the indefatigable Okazaki making runs in behind and constantly pressuring the opposition in the hope of capitalising on defensive mistakes, Ulloa’s hold up play could prove to be as effective as Vardy’s runs off the shoulder of the last defender. 

One of the main arguments, though, is that Leicester will miss Vardy’s energy off the ball as a means of defending from the front. Indeed, the Foxes have relied heavily on the Englishman’s industriousness to not only ease pressure on the defence, but create goalscoring chances. Ulloa, though, has proven more than capable of carrying out the necessary defensive duties required to maintain Leicester’s game plan. 

Of attacking players to make 10 more Premier League appearances this season, only Siem de Jong (3.2), Erik Lamela (3.1) and Roberto Firmino (3) are making more tackles per 90 minutes than Ulloa (2.8). That figure also dwarfs Vardy (1 tackle per 90) and Okazaki (1.6 tackles per 90), though that in part is down to 21 of Ulloa’s 26 Premier League appearances coming from the bench. At latter stages of the game, the 29-year-old’s freshness allows him to continuously heap pressure on opponents' backline, with Leicester tending to opt for the target man as a means of seeing out matches. 

However, there are concerns over whether he can maintain the same intensity over 90 minutes. Of his five league starts this season, Ulloa has played the full 90 minutes just once and did so on just 11 occasions from 29 league starts last term. While he could replicate the defensive threat Vardy carries early on, Ulloa does not boast the stamina levels of his striking teammate. Initially the expected stand in frontman can do what is required to gain Leicester a strong standing in their upcoming encounters, but as the minutes tick by and Ulloa begins to tire, his diminishing presence in the final third could have an adverse effect on the side. 

Leicester fans have been treated to Ulloa’s influence from the bench over the season. Only Andy Carroll and Liverpool pair Christian Benteke and Divock Origi (all 4) have scored more goals as a substitute in the Premier League this season than the Foxes striker (3). The timing of his goals have also been vital, with crucial strikes against Norwich and West Ham coming in the 90th and 96th minute, respectively, gaining Leicester three further points in the process. Ulloa, however, now has an even more vital role to play in Leicester’s title pursuit, in terms of both scoring and defending as he aims to ease the concerns that will come with Vardy’s absence.

How do you think Leicester will fare while Jamie Vardy is suspended? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below