Match Focus: Where Wenger's Rematch with Pep Could be Decided

Kevin Großkreutz's 87th minute winner for Borussia Dortmund at Marseille at the end of the Champions League group stages had vast consequences for the competition. While the impact of that goal was greatest for Dortmund, it had huge ramifications for Arsenal, who failed to finish top of their group. That meant Arsenal would face a tougher draw in the next round of the competition and ultimately made for a clash with reigning European champions Bayern Munich.

The German giants came to London last year and produced a masterclass as Arsenal were swept aside by Jupp Heynckes' side. After only 21 minutes the tie was all but decided, with Bayern already two goals to the good and enjoying near complete control. Things changed, though, and as Bayern began to relax Arsenal grew into the game, and were eventually only knocked out on away goals after they won 2-0 at the Allianz Arena.

Wednesday cooks up a rematch, with both teams even better than they were a year ago, and while Bayern are still huge favourites, there might just be reason to believe an upset could be on the cards, or at least to more so than one was considered possible last term.

Midfield Battle

Both teams boast midfield-heavy squads, and the strongest players on the pitch will be on display in that part of the pitch. In fact, there are only really (if you count Lukas Podolski as a wide midfielder or winger rather than centre-forward) two strikers across the two undeniably world class squads, and Mario Mandzukic may not even start.

When Pep Guardiola took his Bayern side to Manchester City in the group stage, Thomas Müller played as a false 9, and Mario Götze's recent form suggests he would be unfortunate to miss out. If either is deployed up front the midfield will be even more packed, but with Liverpool having recently brutally exposed Arsenal's susceptibility at the back to pace, a midfielder dropping deep from a striker's role could leave gaps for the likes of Arjen Robben to charge into.

Mathieu Flamini has been vital since resigning for the Gunners, and he will be key in aiming to thwart the likes of Götze, Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm finding gaps to thread balls through. Only Barcelona (26) played more accurate through balls in the Champions League group stages this season than Bayern (20), so Flamini, who averaged more interceptions per game (3) than any midfielder in either squad, will have a hell of a job on his hands. On the other side of the coin, Lahm could be charged with stifling Arsenal's biggest threat, Mesut Özil.

Arsenal's chances

Arsenal will be primarily concerned with keeping the tie within reach after this leg, and that means avoiding shipping as many goals as they did last season, or at San Siro at this stage the season before. Saying that, however, neither is it the case that are Arsenal the type of team to sit back and defend for 90 minutes, nor that doing so against a team like Bayern is a good idea. The Gunners would be delighted with a clean sheet but even happier with a goal, and will also look to score. They face a tough task, though, with Bayern having shipped only 21 goals in 33 competitive games this season, and only once in 6 matches since the winter break.

They may aim to catch their opponents on the break, but without the pace of Theo Walcott that may prove trickier; they have scored 4 counter-attacking goals this season, but the most recent of those came in Walcott's last appearance before injury (against Tottenham in the FA Cup). Tomas Rosicky and Alex Oxalde-Chamberlain provide other options of players who are very direct in their approach play, and either - or even both - could play key roles.

Another option for Arsenal to consider is that with Olivier Giroud's presence they have the opportunity to go long and play over the top of Bayern's superior midfield. Only Bacary Sagna (21) won more aerial duels in the Champions League group stages this season than Giroud (18) of all Arsenal or Bayern players, and he is certainly strong enough to hold the ball up for the likes of Özil and Santi Cazorla breaking from midfield. Giroud does though, try too many flicks, and without Walcott there is a lack of variation to Arsenal's attacks, with too few players running in behind. Rosicky or Oxlade-Chamberlain could be the player to do just that and that could aid Giroud.

Managers

The clash brings together two of the game's modern greats, but this competition has brought much greater success to Guardiola than it has Arsène Wenger. Nonetheless, the Frenchman has proven capable of overcoming Pep, winning a clash against his unquestionably superior Barcelona side at the Emirates almost exactly 3 years prior to this game. As expected, Barça enjoyed the vast majority of the possession (66%), but could only muster 11 shots to Arsenal's 13. 

51% of the game took place in the middle third of the pitch that day as a midfield three of Song, Wilshere and Fábregas matched their opponents and Arsenal's back four impressed. Laurent Koscielny was WhoScored's man of the match, making 4 interceptions and 7 tackles, and now significantly improved, particularly in his reading of the game and decision-making, he could play an important part. 

Barcelona went on to be crowned European champions and Bayern may well do the same this season. But for an inexplicable sending off for Robin van Persie at the Nou Camp in the return leg, Wenger might just have beaten Guardiola over the two legs last time they met, and with a better Arsenal side this time, he could hold some hope of another improbable, yet not impossible, positive result.

Where will tonight's game be won and lost? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below