Why Hodgson Should Opt Against Taking Andy Carroll to Euro 2016
There are major problems international managers face that club managers do not. One is that if, say, your country hasn’t produced any left-wingers for a decade you can’t simply go out and buy one. And the other is that as soon as a player who is qualified for your country plays well, there will be a clamour to select him.
Imagine Manchester United or Arsenal had just won 10 games in a row. The forward line is working well. Despite a couple of key injuries, they’re scoring goals. There are options. They can play a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 formation. And then another striker at another club scores a hat-trick. Nobody would demand Louis van Gaal or Arsene Wenger sign him. Nobody would even demand they take a look. Yet international managers face that all the time.
Roy Hodgson has put together an England team that, in beating Germany in Berlin, looked as good in a friendly as any England side has since the win over Argentina in Geneva in 2005. Coming off the back of a qualifying campaign in which England won every game, there is a sense of positivity about the side for the first time in more than a decade. What is needed before the Euros is tweaking and fine-tuning, not a new blueprint.
The problem for international managers is the lack of time they have to work with their squads, to build the levels of mutual understanding that are almost second nature for club teams where the players train and play together every day. Of course it’s possible to be overly loyal, but the far more common problem for international managers is a lack of consistency.
Has Mark Noble had a good season? Yes, of course he has, but has he played in a way that he could be said to be a significantly better option than Jordan Henderson, Danny Drinkwater or Jack Wilshere? Of course not. He’s perhaps been a little unlucky not to get an England call, but once the team is set and playing well, there’s no compelling argument for a change.
The same is true of Aaron Cresswell. He’s had a very good season, but so too have Ryan Bertrand and Danny Rose, while Leighton Baines, Luke Shaw and Keiran Gibbs presumably remain in Hodgson’s thoughts. Is he one of the best half-dozen England-qualified left-backs? Yes. Is he manifestly one of the best two? No. So the men in possession stay in possession.
Which brings us to Andy Carroll, about whom Hodgson was oddly tetchy over the weekend. Carroll, it is true, can be unplayable, as Jurgen Klopp commented after Liverpool’s defeat at the Boleyn Ground back in January. His hat-trick against Arsenal was exceptional. He scored a beautifully muscular header against Sweden at Euro 2012.
But he hasn’t played for England since October 2012. He is a physical monster who would offer England a different option, but also lacks the mobility to assist with the pressing that was such an outstanding feature of England’s play against Germany. This is an England side to play on the counter, but he lacks the pace to do so. And besides, one hat-trick does not resurrect a career.
Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Jermain Defoe and Troy Deeney are all English centre-forwards who have scored more than Carroll this season. Admittedly, Carroll’s eight have come in just eight starts, plus 14 sub appearances, but other stats count against him.
Vardy, Deeney, Rooney, Connor Wickham, Cameron Jerome, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Raheem Sterling, Theo Walcott have contributed more assists. Deeney (6.4) is winning more aerial duels per game. A pass completion rate of 61.8% is worse than Sterling, Jesse Lingard, Rooney, Walcott, Saido Berahino, Defoe, Duncan Watmore, Kane, Rickie Lambert, Wickham, Vardy and Jerome.
He makes just 0.3 tackles and 0.1 interceptions per game. Carroll, essentially, does one thing exceptionally well, which is being big and directing that bigness in a way that unsettles opponents and scores goals. But that’s not how this England play. Plan Bs have to have some relation to Plan A.
Hodgson has four forwards who are all but certain to go to France if fit: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Wayne Rooney and Raheem Sterling. He clearly likes Danny Welbeck, who is intelligent and versatile. Then there are Daniel Sturridge and Theo Walcott battling for a place. After that, probably, there’s Carroll and Marcus Rashford, although there are also plausible arguments for both Defoe and Deeney.
If there are injuries, if Carroll’s form remains hot, then he’s certainly in the conversation, but Hodgson should not be ripping up his blueprint on the basis of a team’s inability to deal with a target man.
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