It’s a quarter final match up that some would suggest deserves to be the final showpiece of Euro 2016. For all of Germany’s obvious dominating talent, Italy’s team spirit to match their unwavering willingness to work tirelessly for their manager Antonio Conte promises to make for an enthralling affair between two of European football’s heavyweights. Here, WhoScored.com picks out four key battles worth keeping an eye out for in the tie of the round.
Manuel Neuer vs Gianluigi Buffon
As good a place as any to start, Germany’s quarter final meeting with Italy pits two of the finest goalkeepers in the game against one another. Fans go to great lengths to discuss who is the better shotstopper between Manuel Neuer and Gianluigi Buffon and this tie will surely swing any argument in the direction of one goalkeeper or the other. The duo both harbour 100% save success rates, though Neuer has played one game more than Buffon, which perhaps renders his achievement the more impressive.
However, with Germany’s dominance - they have averaged the most possession (64.1%) and are conceding the fewest shots per game (5.3) in the tournament so far - Neuer has rarely been called into action so far. Indeed, six saves in four appearances to Buffon’s eight in three only heightens the impressiveness of the veteran Italian’s performance so far. Buffon’s WhoScored rating (7.19) is second only to Lukasz Fabianski (7.36) of all goalkeepers to make two or more Euro 2016 appearances.
Given Italy concede over double the number of shots per game (12) as Germany, and that they see far less of the ball (47.3% possession), Buffon can be expected to be the busier of the two goalkeepers on Saturday. Yet, as his displays this tournament so far suggest, the 38-year-old is capable of denying the offensive threat of Germany. Neuer, meanwhile, despite being rarely tested thus far, certainly boasts the necessary concentration levels required to deny the Italy offence as and when Azzurri attacks materialise.
Toni Kroos vs Eder
It’s reasonable to suggest that Toni Kroos has been Germany’s most important player at Euro 2016. He’s their highest rated player (8.03) of those to make two or more appearances at the competition and is the lynchpin in the midfield alongside Sami Khedira in Jogi Loew’s favoured 4-2-3-1 formation. Kroos averages more passes per game (111) than any other player, while a pass success rate of 92.3% highlights just how efficient the Real Madrid man is in the middle of the park.
Italy’s best chance of success is to limit Kroos’ influence in midfield, particularly given his ability to spread the play - only two outfielders average more accurate long balls per game (10.8) than the 26-year-old - and so keeping a man close to the German is vital, just as they did with Busquets against Spain. This is where Eder comes into play. The Inter star, who looks a player reborn in France, has the necessary energy levels required to keep a close watch on Kroos and drop deeper to ensure the midfielder is unable to exert his ball keeping quality.
The 29-year-old is averaging a respectable 1.3 tackles per game at Euro 2016, with his tenacity in the midfield and attacking third re-endearing him to supporters. It’s no secret that Eder endured a difficult second half to the season with Inter, but a late goal in the 1-0 win over Sweden coupled with a notable display against Spain hints at a return to his Sampdoria form. If he can successfully nullify Kroos on Saturday, Germany could struggle to assert their dominance on this hard working Italy side.
Jerome Boateng vs Graziano Pelle
With the help of Pep Guardiola, Jerome Boateng has established himself as one of the finest centre-backs in Europe. He’s maintained his excellent club form for country with a number of solid defensive showings to help return a WhoScored rating of 7.35. Indeed, only Pepe (25) and Lukasz Piszczek (20) has won possession in the defensive third more times than the 27-year-old (19) this summer, with the former having played one more game. Boateng's exceptional goal line clearance in the 2-0 win over Ukraine in the group stages was a memorable tournament moment, as was his sumptuous volley in the 3-0 win over Slovakia.
However, he will be expected to have his work cut out when Germany face off against Italy, particularly given Graziano Pelle’s form at the tournament so far. The Southampton man has impressed as the Azzurri’s lead striker in France, with his two goals bettered by only a handful of players at Euro 2016. An average of 3.3 aerial duels won per game is better than any other Italy player, with his dominance in the air crucial for an Italy side that often adopts a direct attacking approach.
Boateng has developed a statistically calculated WhoScored weakness of ‘aerial duels’ and Italy can exploit the centre-back’s aerial shortcomings in their quest to secure a semi final berth. Both players have enjoyed fine tournaments to date and know they need to limit their opposing number’s influence in order to secure victory in Saturday’s encounter. If Pelle does indeed target Boateng, then Italy’s direct approach could yet have the desired effect against Germany.
Mario Gomez vs Leonardo Bonucci
Germany appear to have rediscovered their identity following Mario Gomez’s return to the side and they have been rewarded with two goals from two starts. The forward now has four goals in his last four starts for the German national side and can be expected to spearhead the attack once more on Saturday night. Only Belgium (17.8) are playing more key passes per game than Germany (16.5) at Euro 2016 and if the chances are created for Gomez, then a striker of his ilk can put Italy to the sword.
Leonardo Bonucci, though, stands between Gomez and the back of the net for Germany. The central component of Italy’s three-man defence, the Juventus star has proven his worth once more for the Azzurri with a series of assured performances at the heart of the backline. Only Giorgio Chiellini (3.7) is averaging more interceptions per game than Bonucci (3) of all Italy players, with the pair vital in ensuring threaded passes to the forward line are quickly cut out. Bonucci’s average of 5.8 clearances per game is more than any international teammate at the competition and his proactive approach means he’s more than capable of being in the right place at the right time to limit the opposition offensive.
This won’t be the first time the two players have faced off either. Of the five times Gomez faced Juventus during his time at Fiorentina, he came up against Bonucci on three occasions, with the former failing to score in all three. The Italian centre-back knows how to keep his German counterpart in check it seems. He needs another dominant performance in order to deny Gomez and Germany a place in the semi final stage.
Who of Germany or Italy will secure a spot in the next round of Euro 2016? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
