Stats Analysis: Premier League Big Chance Conversion

There have been some glaring misses in the Premier League this season, with a Dirk Kuyt scoop straight out of the Mr Whippy masterclass against Aston Villa ending up in the stands from just a couple of yards out recently. Fernando Torres' head in hands moment against Manchester United also stands long in the memory, as it will for the Spaniard, and while such gaffes can be a source of joy for so many opposing fans, and indeed neutrals, they could well be telling come the end of the season.

The big chances missed can be the difference between glory and heartbreak, so we have analysed the sides that fare best and worst in terms of 'big chance' conversion to gauge who may have the upper hand in the run-in. To clarify, a 'big chance’ is anything that one would deem to be a clear cut scoring opportunity, be it a one-on-one, free header or open goal etc.

European Chase

We start at Newcastle, where the exploits of a couple of Senegalese hitmen have had the Geordie's dancing throughout the campaign. As if the 16 goals of Demba Ba weren't satisfactory enough prior to the African Cup of Nations, Alan Pardew decided to snap up his compatriot in what may have seemed a strange move while Papiss Cisse was unavailable, away at the same tournament.

The £10m signing from Freiburg has, however, proven to be a masterstroke, surpassing Ba's exploits to smash in 10 goals in just 9 games. Cisse has scored 7 of 11 big chances this season (64%) while Ba has netted 9 of 16 (56%). The pair's excellent records have helped Newcastle to a league high big chance conversion rate of 50%, with the side scoring 23 of the 46 clear cut opportunities to have come their way.

For that reason the sides directly above the Toon need be cautious, and with Chelsea holding the next best record in England, Arsenal and Spurs both have a fight on their hands to ensure Champions League football next season. The Blues have scored 44.8% of their big chances this campaign (26/58) in a season in which their main forwards have been misfiring, or so it seemed.

Frank Lampard has been the most clinical finisher at the club again, with a terrific 9 big chances scored (including penalties) of 11 in total (82%). Didier Drogba's lack of goals have been down to an inability to get into the positions that he used to rather than a dip in finishing, scoring 2 of just 3 big chances, while Torres has netted just 1 from 8 (12.5%).

While Arsenal's form of late has been excellent, disregarding a disappointing display at QPR, their season could have been so much different were it not for a number of spurned opportunities. The Gunners have converted 37.6% of their big chances this season - down in 14th in the league - and all despite possessing the country's top marksman, with van Persie spurning 21 of 38 big chances so far.

Encouragingly for Wenger, one of the six teams below them in terms of big chance conversion is Tottenham, who have squandered 54 out of 82 clear cut opportunities this season (34.1% conversion rate - 15th in the league). The main culprit in terms of quantity missed for Redknapp's side has been Emmanuel Adebayor, who like van Persie has missed 21 big chances, but has scored 13 in comparison (38%). Elsewhere, however, both Bale and Defoe have only managed to notch 3 of 11 (27%).

Title Race

In terms of the title race, things couldn't be much closer in this regard between the red and blue sides of Manchester. United have netted 43.6% of their big chances (joint third best) while City have scored 42.9% of theirs (5th best). Although the difference isn't huge, a decent indicator highlighting the fact that Ferguson's side have been more adept at dealing with the pressure recently has seen them convert 46% of their clear cut opportunities since January, compared to City's 40%. Such intricacies look likely to see the trophy go back to Old Trafford come May.

Fight for Survival

When it comes to the tail end of the table, all does not look well for Wigan here. Martinez' side have created more chances than 4 of the bottom 5, and indeed more than Newcastle, with 48 but have only netted a meagre 11 (22.9% - a league low). The blame can really be spread across Wigan's attacking players, though Rodallega and Di Santo certainly stand out. The former has failed to score from 6 big chances, while Di Santo has registered just 1 from 7 (14.3%).

QPR's problem, in contrast, lays in an inability to create said opportunities, with only Bolton having fewer big chances this season than the Hoops' 39. Mark Hughes' men have been impressive in front of goal when it comes to big chances, matching Manchester United's third ranked conversion rate of 43.6% having netted 17 of their clear cut opportunities. If they can start to muster more creativity, the finishing of their forwards may prove to be the saving grace of last season's Championship winners, though a tough run-in won't help.

Although the seasonal stats in this regard seem encouraging for Wolves, the side's fate has all but been sealed. They have netted 19 of 45 big chances throughout the campaign (42.2%) but have really bottled it in recent weeks. Since the appointment of Terry Connor, not only have the side had just 7 big chances, they have only scored 1 (14.3%). When Mick McCarthy was in charge, they netted 18 of 38, which would have seen them rank second in the league here and could well have ensured their survival.