Team Focus: Possession Doesn't Necessarily Guarantee Success
Brendan Rodgers, last year, spoke of relieving pressure through possession prior to his appointment at Liverpool. The 40-year-old has regularly talked up the need to retain the ball during his managerial career, which has often seen him become the butt of a number of football related jokes.
"Well, at least they won on possession," is the regular response when a football connoisseur is told that Liverpool had succumbed to defeat, be it in domestic competition or in Europe.
However, while Liverpool may have been the more dominant side when in control of the ball on numerous occasions this season, winning possession means little when compared to the most important stat of all - goals. 65% possession - as they enjoyed in the 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur back in November - won't win any team games, not now; not ever, although ball retention remains a necessity in modern football.
The new breed of managers - Rodgers, Andre Villas-Boas and Pep Guardiola, to name three - have regularly placed the impetus on retaining and recycling possession in order to “suffocate” the opposition, before making their move following a significant spell on the ball.
Nevertheless, if there is no end result in the movement across the pitch, the time spent on the ball is wasted, something that was highlighted during the Champions League first leg encounter between Bayern Munich and Barcelona on Tuesday evening.
The Bundesliga side were dominated by their Primera Division counterparts with regards to possession - 66% to Bayern's lowly 34% - but it was the German outfit that came away from the Allianz Arena with a 4-0 win, albeit as a result of two contentious goals in the build up to Mario Gomez and Arjen Robben netting for the hosts.
The encounter saw the two teams across Europe's top five leagues with the highest average per league game meet, with Barcelona averaging 69.6% and Bayern 63.6% in their respective country. Perhaps more pertinently, however, is that that figure has dropped since the 2011/12 season, albeit only marginally.
In season's where Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund secured top spot in La Liga and the Bundesliga, respectively Barcelona's average possession sat at 69.7%, while Bayern's was 63.9% - a drop of only 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
Furthermore, both figures altered when significant changes had been made over the summer. The Catalan side saw Pep Guardiola step down from his role as head coach following his four year stint at the club and his former assistant Tito Vilanova promoted to the managerial hotseat.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Bayern secured the big money signing of Javi Martinez from Athletic, not to mention the acquisitions of Mario Mandzukic, Xherdan Shaqiri and Dante. However, it's the passing stats of the latter that could be a primary factor in the drop in average possession per game this season.
With Holger Badtsuber sidelined since December having torn his cruciate knee ligament in the 1-1 draw with Borussia Dortmund, the Brazilian was expected to provide a creative threat from defence in the absence of his German teammate, only for him to attempt, on average, 60.4 passes per game compared to Badstuber's 67.2, when looking at the 24-year-old's stats last season.
Unsurprisingly, Dante's accuracy is the stronger of the two, but only by 0.3. Furthermore, perhaps the more telling, is that the 29-year-old has attempted more long balls this season (8.4) than Badstuber had last season (7.9), which hints towards the Bayern defender looking towards utilising the power and heading capabilities of Mandzukic, with the Croatian attempting the joint second highest headed attempts (23) in the Bundesliga this season.
However, when compared to Barcelona and the season they attained their highest possession figure, it came in a season when the Blaugrana were arguably at their very best under Guardiola. In the 2010/11 season, the Catalan side averaged an astonishing 72.6% possession over the domestic campaign, in which they secured La Liga, Copa Del Rey and Supercopa de España glory, not to mention the 3-1 Champions League final win over Manchester United.
Furthermore, over the top 10 highest placed teams across Europe's top five leagues in average possession this season, that percentage remains the highest over the last four years with the same 10 clubs, with the other nine unable to reach a figure over 70%.
While this reinforces the mantra that possession is a measure - to an extent - of success, the same can't be said of Bayern, who failed to lift any domestic silverware over the 2011/ 12 season - not including the DFL-Supercup, which comes under the current season - despite that campaign seeing the Bundesliga side average their highest possession stat over the last four seasons.
This is also the case with regards to Ligue 1 side's Lille and Olympique Lyonnais, Premier League pairing Arsenal and Liverpool and Serie A outfit AC Milan, all of whom failed to secure domestic glory in each of their last four seasons in which they have attained their highest average possession figure.
Yet, when looking at the stats of Juventus, Manchester City and Athletic, the trio all achieved some form of glory in one way or another in the 2011/12 season – the year in which they all saw their average possession reach it's highest point. The former duo both claimed the title in their respective league, while the latter won over a fair share of admirers as a result of their performances in La Liga and Europe, securing a place in the final of the Copa Del Rey and Europa League final, only to miss out on first place at the expense of Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, respectively.
Perhaps more notably also is how much the loss of a major player can affect the average possession for a team, regardless of their stature. Arsenal, Lille, AC Milan and Athletic all saw big named stars depart their respective club over the summer with Robin van Persie (Arsenal to Manchester United), Eden Hazard (Lille to Chelsea) Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva (both AC Milan to PSG) and Javi Martinez (Athletic to Bayern Munich) all leaving for pastures new prior to the September 1st deadline.
The quintet all played pivotal roles in their club's respective success during the 2011/12 season and, with the replacements hardly of the similar stature nor capability of their predecessor, as evidenced by their form this season.
Furthermore, when looking at Liverpool in particular, their average possession has actually risen over the last 12 months, despite a failure to pick up a trophy this season compared to their Carling - now Capital One - Cup exploits last season under Kenny Dalglish, not to mention reaching the FA Cup Final, with that stat rising from 55.5% to 57.5%.
This further reinforces the workings of Rodgers, who won the plaudits last season for his approach to the Premier League with his Swansea City side that were dubbed 'Swanselona'. Unsurprisingly, their average possession has dropped from 58% to 56.3% this season under Michael Laudrup.
And while Barcelona's possession percentage has dropped by only 0.1% this season, Tottenham Hotspur's - when referring to Villas-Boas from the fourth paragraph - has dropped significantly from 56.7% under Harry Redknapp to 51.9% under the former FC Porto and Chelsea manager.
It goes to show that high percentage figures don't necessarily guarantee success. Only two of the top 10 teams with the highest average possession across Europe this season won their domestic title last year, while Barcelona and Bayern have seen that figure drop, albeit minimally, and are on course to win, or have already won, their respective league.
