Top Match Preview: Can Wales' attack end Serbia's unbeaten start?

Group D of the UEFA World Cup 2018 qualification process is arguably the most competitive on the continent. Of the six teams involved, three were involved in this year’s European Championship. Yet, despite their lack of tournament experience, Serbia lead the way with seven points from a possible nine so far, with Slavoljub Muslin’s side one of three teams yet to taste defeat in the group. They face off against an unbeaten Wales team at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday night in what can be considered one of the more unpredictable affairs of the qualification process. 

Wales earned numerous admirers for their performances at Euro 2016 having battled their way to the semi finals of the competition before being knocked out by eventual winners Portugal. Chris Coleman will now hope to oversee a return to tournament action in Russia, but must navigate a tough group to do so. Two draws and a win is hardly bad going for the Dragons so far, but victory over Serbia this weekend would see Wales take a huge step forwards in their quest for qualification. 

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While Serbia do currently top the group, they are far from the most solid of defensive sides. Four goals conceded in three games is a modest return at best and it’s here where Wales can gain the upper hand. Coleman has at his disposal two players who head into the international break on top form, with Gareth Bale and Sam Vokes both impressing of late. Bale has three goals to his name in qualification and has scored five goals and provided one assist in his last seven competitive appearances. 

Vokes may have just four league goals to his name from 11 appearances for Burnley, but three of those four have been scored in his last four outings, including crucial strikes against Everton and Crystal Palace. Evidently, both Bale and Vokes come into the encounter on the back of some good form for their respective clubs and it’s crucial they maintain their good goalscoring form this weekend. 

With Coleman expected to line up with a 3-5-2 formation, as he did at Euro 2016, the strike partnership is essential. Serbia, meanwhile, are set to utilise a 3-4-3 formation, which only increases the importance of the pair. Vokes needs to work tirelessly, particularly off the ball, in order to occupy Serbia’s three-man defence. The powerful striker has won more aerial battles (85) than any other player in the Premier League this season, reinforcing a statistically calculated WhoScored strength of ‘aerial duels’. 

Should Wales adopt a direct approach and look to hit Serbia on the counter, this is where Vokes’ aerial dominance can come into play. With Bale then occupying the space behind the Burnley man, it’s a style that helped Wales to reach the final four of Euro 2016, with the most memorable performance coming in the 3-0 win over Russia where Vokes spearheaded the attack with Bale and Aaron Ramsey flanking the Burnley man. 

However, Ramsey could well drop into midfield with Coleman unable to call on Ben Davies in defence, thus adding numbers to the midfield. If anything this further amplifies just how vital Vokes and Bale are to securing victory on Saturday night. Renowned for his speed, Bale’s pace both on and off the ball should pose a significant threat to the Serbia backline. The Real Madrid man boasts the ability to carry possession forward and he is tremendously difficult to stop once he gains a head of steam, particularly if there is space for him to run into to exploit. 

Alternatively, if he can correctly anticipate Vokes knocking the ball on from punts upfield, then it’s likely Bale would have a clear run at goal, thus increasing his and Wales’ chances of hitting the back of the net. Given his three goals in qualifying and respectable return of five goals from 10 league appearances this season, the 27-year-old is more than capable of putting Serbia to the sword. After dropping points at home to Georgia, the Wales crowd will demand a vastly improved performance from the players, even if they did romp to a 4-0 home win over Moldova last time out in front of their own fans. 

Victory over one of the group leaders would certainly send out a huge statement of intent for Wales and they know that, if results go their way, a victory would send them top of Group D, which should be incentive enough for the players. With Vokes and Bale both in good form in front of goal, Wales’ chances of a huge three points increase significantly as they look to battle past a Serbia side, whose defence is far from solid at this point.

Read our in-depth interview with Serbia head coach Slavoljub Muslin ahead of their trip to Wales