Premier League Focus: The Race for Champions League Qualification

While the Champions League reaches its final stages in dramatic fashion, Germany and Spain can sit back and relax with at least one team from each in the semi-final, and the distinct possibility of another progressing tonight. England, meanwhile, had only Arsenal and Manchester United make it through the group stages, and both crashed out in the very next round. Now, while Spurs and Chelsea are still chasing cup glory, their priorities surely remain with finishing in the top 4 and qualifying for the chance to play in Europe's premier competition next season.

Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton remain in the hunt, and after a look at the respective chances of teams in the relegation battle this season, it is also worth considering the run-ins that each of these four teams face in the race for third and fourth. Chelsea start the final straight in pole position, but it will hardly be a simple final 7 games for them.

The primary reason for Chelsea's tough run-in is not the fact that they face teams with a higher average position (7.6) than any of the other Champions League contenders, but instead that they are still fighting on two other fronts. Progress to the semi-final of the Europa League is likely after a 3-1 first leg win at home to Rubin Kazan last week, though they face a four-thousand mile round trip on Thursday, before going to Wembley on Sunday to play Manchester City in the FA Cup. The fixture pile up could cause problems for them in their Premier League campaign; they have dropped points in 4 of the 9 domestic league games they have played this season on the weekend directly after a game in European competition, be it Champions or Europa League. While 5 wins out of 9 is not a poor return and a cup run can boost confidence massively, at this stage of the season fixture congestion causes fatigue and rotation is necessary, which can in turn mean poorer performances.

With 7 games left and having picked up 12 points from the reverse fixtures against those teams earlier in the season, Chelsea are in good stead to finish 3rd, the position they currently occupy. As previously mentioned, though, they do face a tougher run-in than any of the teams in the 3 places below them. At home they face Spurs (4th), Everton (6th) and Swansea (9th), whilst they also still have to go to Old Trafford and Anfield, as well as travelling to Craven Cottage where they have won only 1 of their last 4 trips, and Villa Park, where they could face a team battling for their lives at the bottom. All in all, Chelsea will be delighted to have given themselves a small headstart, but they still have it all to do to qualify for the competition of which they are still reigning champions.

Level on points but trailing on goal difference, Spurs are in 4th having played one game more than their near rivals. After a North London derby win over Arsenal, things have gone slightly sour for Andre Villas-Boas's side, who have won only one of their last 4 Premier League games whilst also losing at Inter and drawing to Basel in the Europa League. Their likely departure from the European stage at the hands of the Swiss side this week may render their efforts in the competition rather unnecessary, but they won't have time to dwell, with key players in the likes of Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon facing a race to make it back in time to play in their next league game against Manchester City. 

Spurs face trips to Wigan and Stoke, against whom they will hope to do better than they managed at home earlier in the season, when they failed to score against either, losing 1-0 to the Latics and drawing 0-0 with Tony Pulis's side. Their remaining opponents occupy an average position of 11th, but given those above results, they only managed 7 points from the corresponding reverse fixtures this term, and will need to do significantly better this time around, particularly given that they have played an extra game already. After Chelsea's Champions League victory last season and Luka Modric and Rafael van der Vaart's departures in the summer, few expected Tottenham to be in with a chance of coming 4th, so 5th would not be the huge failure that many are making it out to be. Nonetheless, given their position at this stage in the season, they would be extremely disappointed to be overtaken by Arsenal yet again.

Across North London, Spurs' rivals Arsenal are hot on their heels. A game in hand at home to Everton could prove crucial to the Gunners' hopes, and their form suggests they have every chance of writing off the deficit and usurping at least one of the teams above them to qualify for next season's Champions League. They have no other competitions to distract them from their one and only goal in the domestic league, though while that is pleasing in itself, it means another trophyless year for the Gunners.

That fact will do a great deal to motivate them into making it into 3rd or 4th ahead of their London rivals, and with the easiest run-in (average position of 11.6) and the best form of the chasing pack, they have every chance of managing it. That form, which has seen them win 6 of their last 7 league matches, should mean the Gunners pick up more than the 11 points they managed against their remaining opponents earlier in the season, while the imminent return to fitness of Jack Wilshere could provide another boost. The likes of Tomas Rosicky and Gervihno are finding form when their team most need it, and it could be those two, who combined for the opener at West Brom last week, that are the unlikely heroes and win Arsenal the necessary points.

Last of the Champions League hopefuls is Everton, whose 2-2 draw at White Hart Lane kept alive their slim chances of making it into the top 4 come May. With the fourth best home record in the Premier League this season, the Toffees have relied on their performances at Goodison Park rather heavily, and they should win each of their remaining home fixtures (against QPR, Fulham and West Ham). However, on the road, where they have won just 4 times all season, they face tough trips to Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, as well as relegation threatened Sunderland. 10 points from the corresponding fixtures earlier in the season was reasonably impressive, and they might well repeat that feat, but that is unlikely to be enough to claw back the 6 points they currently trail fourth place by.

The race for Champions League qualification is hotting up nicely, and for the neutral - and the teams who eventually succeed - it will be an extremely exciting time. For the others though, it will be a pressure filled run-in, with such large financial consequences that nerves might well play a part.