In the final accumulators of the season, the odds favour the punter. Motivation is waning for some teams, lowering the attention to detail, which could result in a high number of goals.
LIKELY BETS
Athletic vs Villarreal: HOME WIN @ 1.66
One win would secure the last available Europa League spot for Athletic Club, easing some of the pressure ahead of their Copa del Rey final next week, where European access would only be guaranteed if they beat Barcelona.
Caen vs Evian: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.72
It’s a typical end-of-season game where conceding a goal is not as problematic as a few weeks ago. Oddly enough, Caen boast the 4th best attack, but the 6th worst defence, while both teams have scored in 4 of Evian’s last 5 league games away from home. The WhoScored match forecast suggests it is 'very likely' that Caen 'will make a comeback if they go behind'.
Rennes vs Lyon: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.53
These two teams are "Sans Souci" - carefree - and Lyon can play with their heads held high after a great season where they came close to usurping PSG as Ligue 1’s best. Both teams have scored in 5 of Lyon’s last 7 league games away from home. The key for the match can be found by looking to Lyon’s statistically calculated WhoScored characteristics. One of their two weaknesses is 'stopping opponents from creating chances', while one of their main strengths is 'finishing scoring chances'.
TEMPTING BETS
Granada vs Atletico: DRAW @ 2.25
1 point is all that is needed by Atletico Madrid to secure 3rd spot. The team is mired in a poor run of form, so a draw would be welcomed. Granada, meanwhile, will endure a nerve wracking 90 minutes, as they are 1 of 4 teams separated by 2 points that will be involved in the relegation fight. Granada can secure a place in La Liga next season with a win, but as the minutes tick by, it could be that 1 point would be enough, as it is difficult to see Deportivo defeating Barcelona at Camp Nou and Almeria overcoming Valencia.
Empoli vs Sampdoria: AWAY WIN @ 2.90
It's a strange situation for Sampdoria coming into this fixture. They have been well placed to qualify for Europe for the whole season, only to drop out of the positions for the first time this past weekend after only managing 1 win in their last 8 games. However, fortunes have favoured Sampdoria as Genoa were recently denied a UEFA license. Going by this week’s table, Sampdoria would be the club benefitting from their exclusion. Sinisa Mihajlovic will go for the win in Empoli, which is not easy, but the Blucerchiati are the more motivated the two teams. The WhoScored match forecast suggests it is 'likely' that Sampdoria 'will score as a result of individual skill'.
Hamburg vs Schalke: HOME WIN @ 2.30
There is an elite group of 5 teams from Europe’s top 5 leagues. We are referring to those to have played every season in the top-flight of their respective league since it was established. None of these 5 teams come from England or France - these are Inter from Italy, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Athletic from Spain, and Hamburg of Germany. This could become the darkest weekend in the history of the 1983 European Champions. Hamburg must win to retain their status in Germany’s top tier, but even that could not be enough, with results in Stuttgart, Hannover and Freiburg playing a role in determining their future.
LONG-SHOT BETS
Juventus vs Napoli: DRAW @ 3.30
A win here would mean Napoli come to the last day of the season with their future in their hands as they face Lazio on the final day of the campaign with a place in the Champions League at stake. Juventus went the full distance on Wednesday to lift the Coppa Italia, but they do not let up for any opposition, highlighted in their win over Inter last week. Moreover, the Scudetto will be handed to Juventus, while the Coppa Italia will be paraded following the full time whistle. The hosts will not want to lose on such an occasion.
Everton vs Tottenham: AWAY WIN @ 3.00
All 3 points are mandatory for Spurs in order not to be leapfrogged by Southampton, because ending the season in 7th would mean waiting and hoping Arsenal overcome Aston Villa in the FA Cup final if they wish to partake in next season’s Europa League. The WhoScored Match Forecast suggests it is 'very likely' Tottenham 'will score as a result of an opposition error'.
Manchester City vs Southampton: AWAY WIN @ 6.00
Is it difficult for Saints to secure a win at the Etihad Stadium? It certainly is, but not impossible. The odds justify the gamble. One of Manchester City’s statistically calculated WhoScored weaknesses is 'avoiding fouling in dangerous areas', presenting Saints with goalscoring chances aplenty.
What are your top tips for the weekend? Let us know in the comments below
