WhoScored Tipster: Something for the Weekend

Roma vs Fiorentina

After many months of fluctuating success, Luis Enrique’s Roma project seems to finally be coming together.

They’re third in the form table, with four wins from their last six, while at home, no side has better results over their last six. This will give them all the confidence in the world going into Fiorentina’s visit.

The Viola are struggling with just one win in six, losing three of their last four. Their away record against Roma is absolutely horrendous too, losing their last eight away games against the Giallorossi.

Roma to win seems the obvious conclusion, but 1.67 is not a particularly appetising price. Instead, we look to the half time/full time market, where there is a trend. Four of Roma’s last five home wins have come when they’ve led at the break, so Roma/Roma is our selection for this game at 2.6.

Norwich City vs Manchester City

A tale of two cities at Carrow Road this weekend as the Sky Blues look to further their title bid in a tough away fixture while Norwich have surprised many this season with their adaptable approach and their ability to stretch defences.

City’s away form is undoubtedly poor, with nine points from their last ten games away from the Etihad. This will be of real concern against a buzzing Canaries side that have gained as many points in their last six as City themselves.

While you’d favour the visitors, it is far from a comfortable call, and instead we look to goals to find some value in this encounter.

There are some strongly correlating statistics too, with each of Man City’s last eight games on the road going under 2.5 goals. Norwich home games have – more often than not – seen a fair few goals, but City have the best defence in the league, so the Yellows won’t find this like most other games. The price is 2.15 for under 2.5 goals.

Espanyol vs Valencia

There is a weird atmosphere amongst the Valencia squad at the moment, which is caused undoubtedly by the fact that everyone knows Unai Emery will be leaving at the end of the season. Third in the table, behind two of arguably the best squads of all time, their lack of perceived progress will see Emery walk away at the end of the campaign, and has left them in a peculiar sort of limbo as the season draws to a close, although Champions League football is not yet guaranteed.

A trip to Espanyol won't make things any easier for them, as the Catalan side continue in their quest for some European football of their own. They're winless in five, which has certainly damaged their hopes of a Europa League campaign next year, and having finished their last game with nine men, Coutinho and Forlín are suspended.

Valencia's success this season has come even without Ever Banega (their best player according to WhoScored ratings) in the side. His calamitous, self-inflicted injury has been a large blow for their ambitions to break the current hegemony and he won't play again this season. The visitors will be quite confident at Cornella, given how Espanyol's form has tailed off recently. Two wins in twelve is simply not enough, and Valencia are rightfully favourites at 2.37.

However, it is increasingly difficult to back Valencia when factoring in their upcoming Europa League semi-final and the likely absence of frontman Roberto Soldado - their second best player after Banega.

Instead, we look to goals where we see that in Espanyol's last five home games their has been over 2.5 goals 100% of the time, while three of Valencia's last four games have done the same. Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 then, seems a more than reasonable price for this encounter, and Tino Costa is your anytime goalscorer value at 4.00.

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