Europe seems to relax a little before the final round of Champions League's group stage fixtures. There are no real classic clashes in any of the big leagues, aside from Friday's pre-emptively early game between Fiorentina and Juventus. Such a fixture list thus suggests selecting bets based on goals.
LIKELY BETS
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.83
Pochettino's side have continued to disappoint. However, what has not been lacking is the expectations of goals: 6 of their last 7 Premier League games have ended with both teams scoring, and that has been the case in 5 of Palace's last 7. Actually, goals are almost guaranteed when Palace play away; they have the 6th best away attack and the 3rd worst defence. In addition, the WhoScored Match Forecast lists an impressive array of methods by which both Tottenham and Crystal Palace will 'likely' or 'very likely' score.
Napoli vs Empoli: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.90
Empoli have been widely praised for the quality of their attacking brand of football in the first third of the Serie A season, particularly with the youngsters backed by their manager Sarri. They might not have enough to worry Napoli, but the partenopei's defence is an unresolved issue. In terms of home record, they have the third best attack (16 goals scored) and the third worst defence (10 goals conceded), and they have let in at least one goal in all but one of their games at San Paolo this season (weirdly enough keeping a clean sheet against Roma!). Meanwhile Empoli have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5 games. Digging into the WhoScored database, the key is found in Napoli's weaknesses: only about one thing about Napoli is considered very weak, and that is 'Protecting the Lead'.
Elche vs Atletico Madrid: AWAY WIN @ 1.57
The colchoneros have very good odds to secure the three points here, in what is definitely not a hard game for Simeone against the team second from bottom and with only 1 win in their last 10. The WhoScored Match Forecast tells the story, predicting Atletico to control the game in the opposition half, dominate in the air, and score from a set-piece situation.
TEMPTING BETS
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.72
The odds on this outcome are incredibly high given that Madrid have actually conceded in 4 of their 6 Liga matches at the Bernabeu, and Celta Vigo have found the net in 5 out of their 6 away games. It almost becomes boring to list down the ways Real Madrid are likely to score against Celta, but it is interesting and important to stress that the visitors are considered 'strong', according to WhoScored's characteristics, at 'creating chances using through balls'.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen: OVER 1.5 GOALS IN FIRST HALF @ 2.25
This looks like it should be one of the classic Bundesliga matches, with goals assured. This should be an entertaining match from the very beginning, in fact, as Eintracht have registered at least 2 goals in the first half of 6 out of their last 8 games. However, the WhoScored match forecast suggests that it is 'very likely' that Werder Bremen will make a comeback if they go behind.
Newcastle vs Chelsea: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 2.00
Mourinho's merciless machine can't really be questioned, but still, when playing away from Stamford Bridge they are still prone to conceding goals, as proved by the fact that 6 of their 7 away games have seen both teams register on the scoresheet. The WhoScored match forecast lists only how Chelsea will score, but one of Newcastle's main strengths must be considered, with the characteristics indicating that they are very strong at 'coming back from losing positions".
LONG-SHOT BETS
Fiorentina vs Juventus: DRAW @ 3.40
Last season's unforgettable 4-2 comeback victory over Juventus was unforgettable for the tifosi viola, but the situation is so different year on. The hero of that game, Giuseppe Rossi, is still out and it is worth the reminder that that game came after 15 years without beating Juventus in Florence. That match gave the bianconeri a rude awakening: after pushing their luck for so long, Conte's men, from that moment on, started their long run to the title. This time around, Allegri is in full control of a team that has tactically transformed into his own creature. Montella, meanwhile, is not getting the best of his stars, although at least Mario Gomez got a goal last week.
Fiorentina could be helped by the fact that Juve face Atletico in their final Champions League game next week - the reason why this match is being played on a Friday - and Allegri might rest the likes of Llorente or even Pirlo. On the right wing Fiorentina can expose Evra's recent wobbles, while for Juve it will be interesting to see if Roberto Pereyra can continue his good form. He, along with Vidal could prove too much for their opponents.
Juventus have tended to take a while to break down tougher opponents: each of their 3 games against teams from the top of the table this season have been level at half time, and no doubt Montella will take particularly care not to leave too much space for Juve to exploit.
PSG vs Nantes: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.07
Don't be mislead by the fact that the Parisiens are highly favoured as in 4 of their last 5 games the final score has seen under 2.5 goals, a stat that stretches to 5 of the last 7 as far as PSG's home games in Ligue 1 are concerned.
Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim: UNDER 1.5 GOALS @ 6.00
Everything has changed at the moment for Dortmund who are no longer looking like the dangerous counter-attacking side of old. In fact their last 3 home games have all ended in an under 2.5 goals result - which is strange for the Bundesliga, and even stranger for Borussia Dortmund. Look at the odds on this, and don't look back.
What are your top tips for the weekend's action from across Europe? Let us know in the comments below
