Match Focus: Can In-form Galatasaray Break the Curse of the Şürkrü Saracoğlu?

‘Derbies don’t have favourites’, but there is always an exception to the rule. The last time Galatasaray beat cross-city rivals Fenerbahçe at the Şürkrü Saracoğlu stadium was back in 1999.  

Hamza Hamzaoğlu will try to do what the likes of Roberto Mancini, Frank Rijkaard and Lucescu have all failed to on Sunday. Beat rivals Fenerbahçe at their fortress.  

There are many theories behind the Yellow Canaries’ exceptional record against Galatasaray. From the atmosphere to curses, many have tried to explain how Fenerbahçe have been able to consistently outdo their European rivals at home.  

Fort Saracoğlu was, however, recently breached for the first time in 33 league games by Akhisar, who ironically are managed by former Fenerbahçe player Roberto Carlos.  

Galatasaray started the season amid high hopes when Cesare Prandelli took charge but dreams of success were soon shattered as the former Italian national team manager embarked on a disastrous European campaign. The Lions were dumped out of the Champions League group stages with one point. Prandelli did not get to even manage the last game as he was replaced by rookie coach Hamzaoğlu. 

The former Galatasaray player has exceeded even the most optimistic of Galatasaray fans’ wildest expectations since taking over. Hamzaoğlu has averaged 2.6 points per game since his appointment and taken the Lions into pole position going into the weekend.  

The Intercontinental derby is always a game of epic magnitude in Turkey regardless of whether it is in the league, cup or even a friendly, but it rarely coincides with being played at a critical time in the season. The Süper Lig is currently in the midst of one of the tightest title races in recent memory. Just four points separates the Istanbul titans, Galatasaray, Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe, making Sunday’s derby more than just a derby.  

The Lions would move seven points clear of third placed Fenerbahçe with a win at the Şükrü Saracoğlu and while it would be premature to start celebrating the league title it would be a gigantic blow to the Canaries’ dreams of winning the Süper Lig for a record 20th time.  

Fenerbahçe have dropped five points in their last two games but it would be unfair to claim that there is a serious crisis – yet. The Yellow Canaries generally dominate games with 58% average possession, take the most shots on goal per game (17.8.), have the highest pass completion rate (81%) and average 405 passes per game – only Galatasaray average more (406). The Blue and Yellows are the best performing team in the league according to WhoScored.com with an average rating of 7.18.  

While Canaries boss Ismail Kartal will be pleased with his side’s ability to control games he will be quite concerned about the profligacy of his forwards. Emmanuel Emenike has scored just four goals in 17 league appearances. The powerful striker has been unable to register a shot on target in his last 250 minutes of playing time.  

Fenerbahçe have actually scored 37 goals this season, only Galatasaray have hit the back of the net more in the top four, but the Canaries’ conversion rate is what will be worrying Kartal. Fenerbahçe score with, on average, 9.4% of their shots on target. In contrast Galatasaray have an 11.9% conversion rate and the prolific Burak Yılmaz upfront.  

Yılmaz has 13 goals in the league this season, while the Lions also have the likes of Wesley Sneijder capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat as Fenerbahçe found out in the last derby at the Türk Telekom Arena. Hamzaoğlu has got his attacking unit firing on all cylinders, with Galatasaray scoring two goals or more in their last seven matches. The Lions have scored nine in their last three league games but Galatasaray do have an achilles heel that has haunted them for the last few seasons - their defence.  

Galatasaray have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games. Fenerbahçe strikers may not exactly be red hot right now but even relegation battlers Balıkesirspor and Erciyesspor have been able to find the back of the net against the Lions in recent matches.  

Kartal faces a dilemma regarding his approach to the game. A win would put Fenerbahçe right back in the title race but he will be wary of his opponents’ counter-attacking threat. Galatasaray have scored more goals on the break than any other side in the league. The likes of Yılmaz and Bruma have pace that could really cause the home side problems if they push too far forwards. A draw would still leave Fenerbahçe in the title race but Kartal would be in for a huge backlash if he plays a defensive game.  

Galatasaray go into the derby very much the side in vogue. Were the game played at a neutral venue the Lions would probably be favourites but the Şükrü Saracoğlu has been kryptonite to Galatasaray since 1999.

Do you think Galatasaray can overcome Fenerbahce this weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below