Player Focus: Assessing the Early Premier League Player of the Season Candidates

Fifteen games into the Premier League season and all set for the hectic winter schedule, no-one would have imagined that Leicester would be top of the pile this late into the season. Nor would any have predicted the players that have taken this campaign by storm to now.

This time last year Chelsea were charging to an early title challenge - how times have changed - and the likes of Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas and Eden Hazard were all staking an early claim to be considered among the favourites for the player of the season award. Fast forward twelve months and the former is out of the side under Jose Mourinho while Hazard, who went on to win the PFAs top gong, is yet to score a single league goal.

There have, however, been some outstanding candidates in the early running to be named the top player in the Premier League in 2015/16, with three players in particular leading the charge.

3. Jamie Vardy - WhoScored rating 7.82

He may be the top-flight’s top scorer having recently notched in a Premier League-record breaking 11 consecutive matches but Jamie Vardy places third in WhoScored.com’s player rankings to this point. Nevertheless, with 14 goals to his name he is the runaway leader in the scoring charts right now, and would understandably be considered the favourite of many as a result.

The forward has supplemented his goal tally with a modest 2 assists thus far, while no player has won possession in the final third more times than the England international (15). There is no question that Vardy epitomises the current Leicester team and its success. The 28-year old has now fired off the second most shots in the league (58), while no player has hit the target on more occasions (27), proving just how far his finishing has come on this season. Indeed, Vardy has tested the keeper more times than he did over 34 appearances last season (24), scoring almost three times the number of goals (5).

Judging just how his season will pan out for the striker is reliant on Leicester’s ability to maintain their efficiency and work rate as a whole. Despite the fact that they, unlike any other contender - and they must surely be considered as such - are not dropping points it would be a surprise to see the Foxes keep the pace. As a result I’d expect Vardy’s form to dip a little from a current fair price with Buabook of £13.41 having been nursing an injury for some time, so I’d predict him to fall short of a £33.97 run rate to a season value of around £25.50.

2. Mesut Ozil - WhoScored rating 7.86

Edging ahead of Vardy in the rankings at the weekend, Mesut Ozil’s creative exploits have been quite remarkable this season. Criticised by some for a perceived lack of work rate early on in his Arsenal career, the German is certainly doing what he was bought to do for a club record fee by the Gunners. Aiming to break Thierry Henry’s long-standing assist record of 20 in a single Premier League season, Ozil is well on schedule, recording his 12th of the campaign in victory over Sunderland last time out.

His inch-perfect pass for Joel Campbell’s opener at the weekend was a familiar sight, with Ozil now having had a direct hand in at least one goal in each of his last 9 league appearances; 10 of his assists and both of his goals coming in that time. The 27-year old’s assist tally is now twice that of any other Premier League player, while an average of 4.5 chances created per game is higher than any player in Europe’s top 5 leagues, let alone England.

Injuries elsewhere mean that the pressure is now on Ozil to sustain his superb performance levels, and given the Germany international has struggled to cope with excessive playing time in the past that is a slight concern. Cesc Fabregas had very similar figures this time last year and those tailed off dramatically. Nevertheless, if the playmaker can remain fit - as he will likely need to if Arsenal have serious designs on a title challenge - he has the quality to better Henry’s assist record. With a current fair price of £10.93 I’m backing Ozil to end the season with a value of £22.00 at Buabook.

1. Riyad Mahrez - WhoScored rating 8.33

Third in the scoring charts (10) and second to Ozil in assists (6), Riyad Mahrez is still the runaway leader in the WhoScored ratings at present. The Leicester flyer netted a hat-trick against Swansea last time out to become the first Premier League player to register two perfect 10 ratings this season - achieving the same feat on the opening day of the campaign against Sunderland. While Vardy’s goalscoring exploits may have overshadowed Mahrez somewhat, the Algerian has arguably been the Foxes’ real gem.

With a direct hand in 16 goals thus far, only Dortmund’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (20), Barcelona’s Neymar (19) and PSG’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic have been involved in more in Europe’s top 5 leagues, all of whom play further forward. Moreover, Mahrez has completed more dribbles than any other Premier League player this season (50) and bought into Ranieri’s ethos of winning the ball high up the pitch, doing so in the final third 11 times to prove that he is not merely a luxury player.

The winger, like Vardy, will of course be expected to tail off as the season wears on but, having been rotated by his manager twice already this season, arguably has a greater chance of sustaining his performance levels. A fair price of £11.17 with Buabook right now indicates just how consistent Mahrez has been to this point. If the 24-year old can come close to replicating the same form in the New Year, steering clear of injury, he should be well on course to a seasonal value in the region of £21.50.

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