Manchester United's struggles under Solskjaer revealed ahead of daunting Liverpool clash
Manchester United could be in the bottom three at the end of gameweek nine. It would require an extroadinary run of results but it is possible. There is no longer talk of the four top or Champions League football, but doubts whether they will even secure a top half finish this season. It may not be long before jokes about relegation become a genuine concern.
United's plight under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has been staggering. The Norweigan was unbeaten in his first 12 league matches (W10, D2) as United manager but has overseen just four wins in their last 17 games in the competition. They have scored more than once in just one of their last 13 league outings and remarkably are 15 points off first after just eight games.
United supporters must be fearing the worst ahead of Sunday's encounter with league leaders Liverpool. While their arch-rivals go from strength-to-strength, they continue to plummet to new lows. Solskjaer took 32 points from a possible 36 in his first 12 matches but has collected just 12 points from the last 51 available in the Premier League. So what exactly has changed at United?
In short, the supply of goals at United has completely dried up. During his first 12 league matches only Liverpool (2.5) scored more goals per game than United (2.4). For only the second time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, United scored at least three goals in three straight league matches. United impressively won six league matches in a row away from home, their best winning run since the back end of 2011.
In their last 17 league matches, however, United do not even average a goal per game. In fact, only Brighton have netted fewer times per game than United (0.9) in the Premier League in that sequence, excluding this season's newly promoted teams and the relegated sides from last term. United have scored just nine goals from 110 shots in the league this season, two of which were penalties.
There was a feeling, which was proven correct by the expected goals metric, United were outperforming in front of goal in Solskjaer's first two months. It suggested the run was not sustainable, which was true, though they are now severaly underperforming in goalscoring positions and it's costing them dearly. In fact, United rank bottom of all Premier League clubs for expected goals from open play this season (0.52 per game).
Solskjaer is adamant selling Romelu Lukaku, the club's top scorer from each of the previous two campaigns, in the summer was the right decision. The fact the United boss has made it clear a new striker is a priority for January is an admission the club were wrong not to replace the Belgium international.
Anthony Martial started the season well but has missed their last eight matches in all competitions through injury, while Marcus Rashford is currently enduring his toughest spell at United since breaking into the first-team. The England international is yet to show he can be United's out-and-out No.9. This was painfully illustrated in September by 18-year-old Mason Greenwood, who scored more goals from open play (2) in the space of a week than Rashford had managed in almost six months for United (1).
Spurning big chances has been a consistent feature of United's season. Clear-cut chances created has marginally decreased from Solskjaer's first 12 league matches (1.8) to his last 17 (1.6) but their conversion rate in those positions has dropped at a tremendous rate. United ranked fourth for most clear-cut chances scored per game (1.3) during Solskjaer's unbeaten start but since then only Brighton have put away fewer big opportunities than the Red Devils (0.5).
United have gone from recording the most shots on target per game (6.8) in the division to ranking 10th for the same statistic (4.4) over their last 17 league games. The fact United struggle to break down teams who sit deep and defend in numbers is nothing new from the last six years but the fact they are getting worse at it is startling.
Not only did United opt against signing a creative spark in the summer, they didn't even bolster their midfield options with one new addition. That comes after losing both Ander Herrera and Marouane Fellaini in the space of six months. Paul Pogba was already expected to break up play, dribble past four players before converting his own through ball. And now there is even more pressure on his shoulders.
In a further blow to United, Pogba has been ruled out of Sunday and that will make it even more difficult for Solskjaer's side to break down the league's best defence (six goals conceded). Despite missing three league games already this season, only one player has completed more accurate through balls than Pogba in the Premier League (3).
It's simply not working for United and when they do manage to forge good openings their strikers are simply not taking advantage enough. In their last 17 league matches United have astonishingly taken almost as many shots from outside the box (6.8 per game) as they have in it (7.3). During Solskjaer's first 12 league matches they took 9.5 shots per game from inside the penalty area and attempted just 5.6 from outside it.
If the way Manchester City attack is the level every club aspires to reach, then United need to almost double the amount of shots they are taking from inside the box. With midfielders like Scott McTominay, Fred, Nemanja Matic, Andreas Pereira to call on, it's difficult to see United getting anywhere close to that point. United's displays have been so dismal that they no longer have any statistically calculated WhoScored strengths. In fact, they are currently one of only three teams in Europe's top five leagues not to have any.
There has been no concrete suggestion Solskjaer's job is on the line against Liverpool on Sunday but a damaging result could leave the 46-year-old in a similarly precaious position as his predecessor, who was sacked less than 48 hours after after a 3-1 defeat at Anfield in December 2018. This has already been United's worst start to a league campaign in 30 years and everything suggests it will get even worse this weekend.