Team Focus: Pragmatic Allardyce Approach Needed for Sunderland to Progress

Sometimes teams near the bottom of the table can be in a false position. Leicester City last season, for instance, were a puzzle for a long time as they limped along in the relegation zone. They had more shots than many of those around them and conceded fewer; watching them it was very hard to understand what was going wrong. Then their luck turned and they ended up avoiding relegation comfortably. Sunderland are not in a false position.

Sam Allardyce has never been relegated, but keeping Sunderland up is probably his greatest challenge yet. This Sunderland squad may be slightly better than last season’s – there is certainly more pace about it and, in Jermain Defoe, Steven Fletcher and Fabio Borini, three players who might conceivably get in double figures for goals scored for the season – but there’s no denying that Sunderland deserve to be in the bottom three. Until the 2-2 draw against West Ham United last time out, they’d only been ahead for three minutes this season.

Only Newcastle United have had fewer shots per game than Sunderland (9.5). Only Newcastle have conceded more shots per game (17.5). Only Newcastle have a lower average WhoScored rating per game (6.60). Only Leicester City have a lower pass completion rate (73.5%).

The assumption, if history is anything to go by, is that Allardyce will look to organise the defence, reduce that number of shots conceded and, at least at first, look to play safety-first long-ball football. Sunderland already play the fifth most inaccurate long balls in the division (321) and only the 14th most accurate long balls (228) but, while that isn’t exactly an encouraging sign, it may be a different picture if those long passes are more targeted.

Dick Advocaat never quite got to grips with the conundrum that while Defoe was Sunderland’s best finisher, he’s not really capable of playing as a lone forward. Last season, Advocaat played a front three of Defoe, Fletcher and Connor Wickham, either spread across the front line – as at Everton, when Defoe ended up playing almost as a second left-back – or with the three tightly bunched and Wickham tucked just behind as one of the clumsiest number 10s the Premier League has
known.

Sunderland’s midfield simply isn’t strong enough to play a 4-4-2; there needs to be a third body in the centre. Assuming a back four – although given the lack of pace in the middle and the attacking inclinations of the left-back Patrick van Aanholt, who averages 1.6 dribbles per game, more than anybody else in the squad other than Jeremain Lens, perhaps a back three mightn’t be such a bad idea – that means either 4-3-3 or 4-3-1-2.

Borini and Lens are both adept at cutting in from the flank, and there’s no natural number 10 in the squad (Ola Toivonen could perhaps be co-opted), so 4-3-3 seems the logical shape – and it’s the one Allardyce has tended to favour despite his recent dabbles with a diamond. That probably means Steven Fletcher, who has five goals in his last three games for club and country, as the preferred centre-forward, if only because he’s been winning 3.3 aerials per game this season as opposed to the 0.7 managed by Defoe.

Lee Cattermole and Yann M’Vila will presumable be paired in midfield to try to offer a defensive screen, with Toivonen, Jack Rodwell or perhaps Sebastian Larsson used to try to break forward to support the attack. Jordi Gomez, for all his neatness in possession, seems to have little role to play in an Allardyce game plan.

But the first thing to get right is sorting out a defence that has leaked 18 goals in eight games this season. Creative considerations come later.

Can Allardyce protect his record and beat the drop with Sunderland? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below