May's under-the-radar form has St Johnstone dreaming of top six finish

Prior to Saturday’s Tayside derby victory, St Johnstone had lost seven of their last eight Scottish Premiership matches. The only exception was their second league win at Fir Park this season, and they got back to winning ways at Tannadice thanks to a Stevie May brace. 

While both goals - the second in particular - were somewhat fortunate, it meant that Saints’ excellent recent record continued away to United. Not since September 2014 have the Terrors beaten St Johnstone at home in a league match, in which seven games have passed. 

Saints average just 40.6% possession per league game. So, as May has found out, it can be hard for strikers to convert chances when their team isn’t expected to dominate the ball.  

His first goal might not have been the best finish, given it’s pretty much in the middle of the goal, and Mark Birighitti probably should save it. But his technique to volley Melker Hallberg’s cross past Birighitti was an outrageous piece of skill. He strikes the ball well and, most importantly, on target. And the second goal, while a defensive calamity from a United perspective, is great centre-forward play.  

The hosts have grabbed a late equaliser, are arguably in the ascendency, and would be expected to push on to potentially grab a winner to aid their bid in staving off the drop. 

Whether it’s come from Callum Davidson’s instructions and prediction that United would continue to play out from the back late on, or if it’s Stevie May’s intuition, is largely irrelevant.  

He stays on his toes, is alive and alert to the situation and sniffs out a potential mistake. Charlie Mulgrew sends it back to Birighitti under attention from both May and Graham Carey and he’s slid in before the goalkeeper’s tried to take a second touch, and got his rewards. 

That means that exactly half of his Scottish Premiership goal tally - three of six - this season have come in matches where Saints have beaten United 2-1 at Tannadice. Saturday’s success was a repeat scoreline and outcome, following a wonderful win to kick off October 2022. 

The goals are as follows: a 94th minute winner at Motherwell on the second matchday of the season in August, an 82nd minute winner at Easter Road against Hibs back in October, and three goals against United at Tannadice this season.  

All of these have contributed towards 12 of St Johnstone’s 30 point tally, 40% of their Premiership points coming from pivotal Stevie May strikes. The only exception at Tynecastle where Saints lost 3-2 in a topsy-turvy clash away to Hearts in August. 

Statistically, he’s performing better than he’s expected to, especially considering the quality of the chances. At the weekend, his Expected Goals was a ratio of just 0.60. This season, his xG is 4.44, meaning he’s notched a few more than he realistically should do. 

With a WhoScored rating of 6.69, he’s been St Johnstone’s main attacker this season.
Only defensive duo Andy Considine and Liam Gordon (both 6.77) have higher WhoScored ratings than May. 

In 18 league starts this season, May has amassed 11 goal contributions (six goals and five assists). With an Expected Assists return of 1.90, he’s contributing more than he’s expected to in the final third.  

And only Melker Hallberg (1.1) and Graham Carey (0.9) are averaging more key passes so far this season for St Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership. 

While the former Preston North End and Sheffield Wednesday striker hasn’t been a particularly prolific goalscorer since his first spell in Perth, he’s a goal away from recording his best return in a league season since signing for Saints after his spell at Aberdeen. 

The weekend brace took him ahead of Drey Wright (5) and Nicky Clark (4) in the Saints’ goalscoring charts. However, his five assists is over double the next best in the side, courtesy of Melker Hallberg, Ali Crawford and Nicky Clark (all 2). 

It could be argued that Saturday summed up the 30-year-old’s quietly commendable campaign so far. If he continues to contribute under the radar, then there’s no reason why Saints can continue ascending up the league table and sneak into the top six.